What’s new: Almost half of global average temperature rise and a third of sea-level rise can be attributed to the “carbon majors,” the world’s 122 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, a recent paper shows.
What the study says:
- Research from U.S.-based science advocacy NGO Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) used climate-carbon cycle models, and found that between 1854 and 2020, emissions from the carbon majors contributed to 45% of the present-day surface air temperature rise and 29% of sea-level rise.
- The paper also projects that by 2300, greenhouse gases from the companies’ past production could result in 35 centimeters (14 inches) of sea-level rise. “While the quantities of fossil fuels produced by these companies into the future are, as yet, undetermined, the impacts of their past production on the climate system will continue for centuries,” the authors wrote.
- While the findings support previous UCS research, the authors wrote in a blogpost that using new data and updating the methodology, through the same climate modeling approach in the 6th IPCC report, allowed them to make projections for future scenarios.
- In an alternative scenario, had the carbon majors halted their emissions after 1990, meaning they only produced emissions from 1854-1990, they would have been responsible for up to 26% of present-day air temperature rise and roughly 17% of sea-level rise. Lower carbon emissions would also mean global temperatures today would be 0.18-0.23° Celsius (0.3-0.4° Fahrenheit) lower and sea levels would be 2-3 cm (0.7-1.2 in) below current levels.
What this means:
The study shows that delayed action to reduce emissions has already led to additional increases in temperature and sea level.
“This study underscores that the past actions of fossil fuel and cement producers will have consequences long into the future,” the authors wrote.
Current fossil fuel emissions are projected to cause average annual temperatures to rise by more than1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels — the threshold determined by the Paris climate agreement. The authors note that “immediate and near-term mitigation is crucial to meeting global climate goals and reducing the long-term impacts.”
They recommended including corporate accountability among future climate action measures to prevent practices that can worsen the effects of climate change.
In a UCS blogpost, climate scientist and study co-author Shaina Saadi said this research can help people seeking to file lawsuits against the fossil fuel industry to hold them accountable for “the devastating impacts of stronger storms, more destructive wildfires, sea level rise” and other effects of climate change.
Banner image of Pasir Timbul in Raja Ampat, Indonesia, by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.
Credits
