Global carbon dioxide emissions from forest fires have soared by 60% since 2001, driven largely by the burning of forests outside the tropics, according to a new study.
There are now, in fact, more emissions from forests located in higher northern latitudes compared to tropical forests, the researchers found. In some areas, such as the boreal forests of Eurasia and North America, emissions nearly tripled by volume between 2001 and 2023. In the 2023 fire season, carbon emissions from fires in Canada’s boreal forests were nine times higher than those recorded in recent decades.
The study, which analyzed the shifting global patterns of forest fires using machine learning and various data sources, found that the rise in fires was associated with weather conducive to burning, influenced by climate change in the form of heat waves and droughts, reduced soil moisture, and increased vegetation or forest growth.
The severity of forest fires globally, measured by carbon emitted per unit area burned, also increased by almost 50% from 2001-2023, the study found. This is “perhaps the most concerning finding,” study lead author Matthew Jones, a researcher at the University of East Anglia, U.K., told Mongabay by email.
This suggests “not only that fires are becoming more widespread, but also that they are doing greater damage to forests when and where they happen,” Jones said. “It also generally means wilder fire behavior, and is therefore a sign that fires are growing more difficult to control.”
Jones added this is expected to make it more difficult for trees to grow back, which means having less carbon storage that will affect the climate.
In the high latitudes, in particular, “climate change is the dominant driver of expanding and intensifying fires,” Jones said, adding that international action is needed if we want to prevent the expansion of forest fires. “Policies can be put in place to thin forests and remove dangerously thick undergrowth in some areas of forest — particularly near to where people live.”
The study is also one of the first to look at the differences between forest and non-forest fires on a global scale. It found that while the world experienced more forest fires in the last two decades, there was less burning in tropical savannas. This might explain the overall fall in global fires that previous studies have found, the researchers say.
“Until now, reduced burning in the already fire-prone savannahs and grasslands has masked increases in forest fire extent and severity that are hugely consequential for society and the environment,” Jones said in a statement. “Our work shows that fires are increasingly happening where we don’t want them to — in forests, where they present the greatest threat to people and to vital carbon stores.”
Banner image of boreal forest fire in Canada by Markus Mauthe/Greenpeace.
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