- Domestic beef production in Brazil could drop by 25% by 2050 as governments and the private sector look to step up climate change and forest conservation strategies, according to a new report from Orbitas, an initiative from Climate Advisers.
- Deforestation from cattle ranching could lead to hotter, drier conditions that worsen cattle health. It could also reduce soil productivity needed for growing animal feed, the report said.
- The industry has to invest in new technological and management techniques in order to prevent major losses.
The cattle ranching industry in Brazil is one of the largest in the world, but it could see huge financial losses if it doesn’t adapt to climate change and increasingly rigorous deforestation policies to protect the Amazon, a new report says.
Domestic beef production in Brazil could drop by 25% by 2050 as governments and the private sector look to step up climate change and forest conservation strategies, according to a new report from Orbitas, an initiative of Climate Advisers. The industry will have to find ways to adapt soon or else risk major losses.
“The future of the Brazilian cattle sector is set to look very different to how it appears and operates today,” said Orbitas director Niamh McCarthy in a statement. “The sector has real climate risks it needs to contend with if it is to remain a significant contributor to Brazil’s GDP.”
Brazil has the second-largest number of cattle in the world at around 232 million, according to FAO, and contributes about 20% of the world’s beef exports. The industry has grown massively over the last several decades, but often at the expense of important biomes like the Amazon Rainforest and Cerrado.
Cattle pasture and agriculture for cattle feed are some of the top drivers of deforestation in those biomes, which act as carbon sinks helping prevent climate change. In the Amazon, deforestation dropped to 900,100 hectares (2,224,196 acres) last year, the first time it had fallen below 1,000,000 hectares since 2018. But clearing is up in the nearby Cerrado, a 200-million hectare (49,4210,762-acre) savanna biome.
The Orbitas report said the cattle industry could be making things difficult on itself by not developing more sustainable practices. Deforestation tied to cattle ranching will lead to hotter, drier conditions that worsen cattle health while also reducing soil productivity needed for growing animal feed.
“All of these risks are already materializing on financial statements across Brazilian cattle sector supply chains,” the report noted.
In addition to keeping pace with climate change impacts, the industry also needs to be aware of how the rest of the world is responding, whether that be in the form of new regulations, supply chain monitoring or a changing market for beef.
Global dietary trends could shift away from beef somewhat as demand grows for alternative proteins with lower greenhouse gas emissions, the report said. At the same time, governments, meatpackers and financial institutions across the globe are already imposing increasingly rigorous policies to ensure supply chains are free of illegal deforestation.
Due to land-use restrictions, the industry won’t be able to grow by expanding into forested land, the report said, and will instead have to invest in new technological and management techniques that make use of the land that’s already dedicated to ranching. That could involve optimizing pasture quality through specialized grass selection and developing new soil health assessments, among other things.
The report recommended that meat producers adopt practices that maintain pastureland and improve soil health, with the aim of resisting pests and future extreme weather events. It also said producers should find ways to optimize land use, integrating agricultural, livestock and forestry systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“Climate transitions will create winners and losers in the global cattle sector, driven primarily by shifting diets, technological change, improved management practices and reduced land availability,” the report said. “Brazil is in a unique position to seize upon opportunities to ensure that its cattle sector stays competitive among these changes and to support the nation’s rural economy for decades to come.”
Banner image: Cattle in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso. Photo by Bernard DUPONT via Flickr (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0).
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