Massive wildfires that killed at least 32 people and scorched an area nearly double the size of Seoul in late March could become more common under human-driven climate change, scientists warn.
The fires burned an area of 104,000 hectares (257,000 acres) and destroyed 5,000 buildings, constituting the deadliest and largest wildfire disaster in South Korea’s recorded history.
Now, a new rapid study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of international climate scientists that analyzes extreme weather events, has found that climate change is increasing both the likelihood and intensity of weather conditions that fueled the fires.
South Korea typically experiences 500-900 wildfires annually, which burn 1,000-4,000 hectares (about 2,500-10,000 acres). But wildfire events have increased by roughly 30% in recent years, the study says, with up to 1,200 events per year now burning more area. The previous record wildfire, in 2022, burned roughly 26,000 hectares (about 64,000 acres), less than a quarter of the area affected this past March.
Most wildfires in South Korea occur from March-April. While they’re usually ignited by human activities, they spread thanks to the hot, dry and windy weather conditions during these months, said June-Yi Lee, study co-author from Pusan National University in South Korea, at a press briefing.
Conditions this year were particularly extreme: daily temperature highs in southeastern Korea at the time were about 10° Celsius (18° Fahrenheit) above the normal March average; humidity was very low; and winds speeds were high, Lee added.
By analyzing weather data and climate models, WWA researchers found that while these extreme conditions remain rare, they’ve become twice as likely and about 15% more intense in today’s climate, which is 1.3°C (2.3°F) warmer than preindustrial times, mainly due to fossil fuel burning.
Before 1850, similar hot-dry-windy weather conditions occurred once every 744 years; in the current climate, they’re expected about once every 300 years. If our planet warms by an additional 1.3°C by 2100, as some projections suggest, the fire-prone conditions could occur once every 178 years, or twice as likely again, the study notes.
Weather conditions aside, South Korea’s increased forest cover, a result of decades of reforestation activities, provided fuel and increased fire risk, the study suggests.
“South Korea has planted billions of trees since the 1970s to reverse historic deforestation, and this carries a wide array of social and environmental benefits, not least the sequestration of carbon,” said Theodore Keeping, study co-author from Imperial College London, U.K. “But the [recent] fires underscore the importance of managing forests and fire risk at this wildland-urban interface, through measures such as the creation [and] maintenance of fire breaks and ensuring evacuation preparedness.”
Forest managers must also focus on the mix of tree species in reforestation programs to minimize the risk and spread of wildfires, Lee told Mongabay at the briefing.
Banner image of a forest fire in Sancheong County, South Gyeongsang Province, South Korea, in March 2025. Image by 경상남도 via Wikimedia Commons (KOGL Type 1).
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