Across the African continent, elephant populations have largely declined over the past several decades, but some areas show hopeful signs of recovery, according to a new study.
Researchers have monitored the numbers of forest and savanna elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis, L. africana) in different parts of Africa since the 1960s. However, few studies have compiled all the survey data collected over decades, across the continent, George Wittemyer, study co-author and conservation biologist at Colorado State University, U.S., and Save the Elephants, Kenya, told Mongabay.
To fill this gap, Wittemyer and his colleagues collated and analyzed elephant population data from more than 1,300 surveys conducted between 1964 and 2016, covering 475 sites in 37 countries. They found that while forest elephant densities declined by 90% on average during the 53-year-period, those of savanna elephants reduced by 70% on average.
In some pockets of Africa, though, elephant densities showed a positive trend. For instance, in southern Africa, at 42% of the surveyed sites, elephant density increased slightly over the decades, while 10% of the surveyed places in eastern Africa showed a rise, and those in the north showed the least improvement.
Majority of the increases were in savanna elephant populations, while forest elephants largely suffered declines during the 53-year period, the study found. However, the latter showed a slight increase in few sites like Pendjari National Park in Benin, which the authors write, “is a rare example of an increasing forest elephant trend”.
“It is critical to understand the trends of the past to optimize our efforts to maintain the species into the future,” Wittemyer said. “There are many lessons we can derive from understanding where declines and increases have occurred.”
Robert Guldemond, conservation ecologist at the University of Pretoria, South Africa, who wasn’t involved in the study, said the findings were not surprising and echoed those of two recent studies. One study found declines in elephant populations across 102 African protected areas. Another study by Guldemond and colleagues found that many savanna elephant populations across southern Africa either increased or remained stable from 1995-2020. Elephants in large parcels of land that are well-protected and connected to other suitable areas did better than those in small, isolated conservation “fortresses.”
The new study’s authors write that their analysis could have underestimated elephant decline, partly because the survey data they analyzed comes largely from protected areas. Populations in unprotected parts of Africa, which also hosted elephants until the 1980s but suffered from poaching and habitat loss, were not systematically surveyed.
Guldemond argued that the study may have underestimated the progress made in some regions.
The study’s time span from 1963-2016 “both includes the heaviest period of poaching in the 80’s and early 90’s and excludes the last 8 years of conservation,” he said. “In short, the analysis may paint a bleaker picture than we currently face. This is particularly true for southern Africa, which is home to three-quarters of savannah elephants whose populations often show increasing or stable trends.”
Banner image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.
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