World population growth rate continues to plummet

May 2, 2005

According to figures released earlier this year by the UN, global birth rates fell to the lowest level in recorded history with the average woman in the developing world having 2.9 children, down from an average of nearly 6 babies in the 1970s. UN demographers also predict that fertility in most of the developing world will fall below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) before the end of the 21st century. Factors leading to falling birth rates include increased level education for women, the use of contraceptives, and urbanization.

Already, in 20 countries births have fallen below the number needed to maintain current population levels and the UN projects that by 2050, 75 percent of less developed countries will be experiencing below-replacement fertility. China, which implemented a strict one-child per family policy in 1979, has the largest drop in fertility rates with an average of 4.3 fewer children per woman since 1970.

Developed countries face declining populations

While around one-third of countries now have birthrates below replacement level, the lowest fertility rates are in the world’s 44 most developed countries, which account for 19 per cent of the world population. All except Albania have fertility below replacement level and 15, mostly located in Southern and Eastern Europe, have reached levels of fertility unprecedented in human history (below 1.3 children per woman). Japan, Italy, Spain, Germany, and most of the successor States of the former USSR are expected to have significantly lower populations by 2050. In contrast, the United States — which has the highest fertility rate of rich countries — is projected to be the seventh largest contributor to world population growth over the next five decades.

Because of its low and declining rate of population growth, the population of developed countries as a whole is expected to remain virtually unchanged between 2005 and 2050, at about 1.2 billion. In contrast, the population of the 50 least developed countries is projected to more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2005 to 1.7 billion in 2050. Some of these country are expected to experience very rapid population growth: between 2005 and 2050, the population is projected to at least triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, East Timor, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda. Growth in the rest of the developing world is also projected to be robust, though less rapid, with its population rising from 4.5 billion to 6.1 billion between 2005 and 2050.

World population may peak around 9 billion

According to the U.N. report, by July 2005, the world population will stand at 6.5 billion, about 380 million more than in 2000 or a gain of 76 million annually. Despite the projected lower fertility levels, by 2050 the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion. If fertility rates remain at current levels of 2.6 children per woman, by 2005 the world would have 10.7 billion inhabitants.

During 2005-2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States of America, Ethiopia and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth. India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by around 2025.

OTHER TRENDS

Aging world

U.N. demographers project the average life expectancy of a child born in 2050 will be 75. A child born today is expected to live, on average, until 65, while 50 years ago life expectancy at birth was 46 years. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century.

Increasing life expectancy, when combined with declines in fertility, will produce a trend of population ageing, whereby the share of older persons in a population increases relative to that of younger persons. According the the report:

• Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 672 million in 2005 to nearly 1.9 billion by 2050. Whereas 6 out of every 10 of those older persons live today in developing countries, by 2050, 8 out of every 10 will do so. An even more marked increase is expected in the number of the oldest-old (persons aged 80 years or over): from 86 million in 2005 to 394 million in 2050. In developing countries, the rise will be from 42 million to 278 million, indicating that by 2050 most oldest-old will live in the developing world.
• In developed countries, 20 per cent of today’s population is aged 60 years or over, and by 2050 that proportion is projected to be 32 per cent. The elderly population in developed countries has already surpassed the number of children (persons aged 0-14), and by 2050 there will be two elderly persons for every child. In the developing world, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 8 per cent in 2005 to close to 20 per cent by 2050 … Population aging, which is becoming a pervasive reality in developed countries, is also inevitable in the developing world and will occur faster in developing countries.

Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045-2050 while in the rest of the developing world, life expectancy is projected to rise from just under 66 years today to 76 years by mid-century. Due to the high prevalence of HIV/AIDS in some developing regions, the projected increase in life expectancy in less developed countries is dependent on the implementation of effective programs to prevent and treat HIV infection.

Impact of HIV/AIDS

U.N. demographers project that HIV/AIDS will remain unchanged until 2010 after which point “prevalence levels are assumed to decline in a manner consistent with modifications of behaviour that reduce the rates of recruitment into the high risk groups as well as the chances of infection among those engaging in high risk behaviour.”

• Twenty-five years into the HIV/AIDS epidemic, 60 countries are highly affected by the epidemic and the impact of the disease is evident in terms of increased morbidity and mortality and slower population growth. In Southern Africa, the region with the highest prevalence of the disease, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1990-1995 to 48 years in 2000-2005, and is projected to decrease further to 43 years over the next decade before a slow recovery starts. As a consequence, population growth in the region is expected to stall between 2005 and 2020. In Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland, the population is projected to decrease as deaths outnumber births. In most of the other developing countries affected by the epidemic, population growth will continue to be positive, as their moderate or high fertility more than counterbalances the rise in mortality.

Urbanization

The continuing urbanization trend has had perhaps the largest impact on the fall of fertility rates and population growth. Cities are population sinks primarily due to their tendency to diminish the utility of children — while children are an asset in rural areas, they are a liability in the city — and to increase levels of education among women. Educated women tend to get married later in life and have fewer children. Today average age for marriage for women is 23 and 27 for men.

Population figures from the United Nations
Using medium variant projections

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 02 May 2005; 11:51:16 AM.

Migration

According to the report, migration will continue to have a significant impact on population trends.

• During 2005-2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005-2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration.
• In 2000-2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom
• In terms of annual averages, the major net receivers of international migrants are projected to be United States (1.1 million annually), Germany (204,000), Canada (201,000), United Kingdom (133,000), Italy (120,000) and Australia (100,000). The major countries of net emigration are projected to be China (-333,000 annually), Mexico (-304,000), India (-245,000), Philippines (-180,000), Pakistan (-173,000) and Indonesia (-168,000).

A more extensive discussion of the key findings of the 2004 Revision is available at www.unpopulation.org. The full results of the 2004 Revision will be issued in a series of three volumes and a wall chart that are currently under preparation. Data on particular countries can also be accessed online at the website of the Population Division.

WORLD POPULATION FIGURES

By country. All figures from the CIA World Factbook 2005

(A) note: according to the UNHCR, by the end of 2001, Uganda was host to 178,815 refugees from a number of neighboring countries, including: Sudan 155,996, Rwanda 14,375, and Democratic Republic of the Congo 7,459 (2005 est.)
(B) note: there has been steady emigration from Wallis and Futuna to New Caledonia (2005 est.)
(C) note: there is an increasing flow of Zimbabweans into South Africa and Botswana in search of better economic opportunities (2005 est.)
(D) note: refugees currently in surrounding countries are slowly returning (2005 est.)
(E) note: major destination for Cubans trying to migrate to the US (2005 est.)
(F) note: fighting between the Congolese Government and Uganda- and Rwanda-backed Congolese rebels spawned a regional war in DROC in August 1998, which left 1.8 million Congolese internally displaced and caused 300,000 Congolese refugees to flee to surrounding countries (2005 est.)
(G) note: UNHCR began repatriating about 150,000 Eritrean refugees from Sudan in 2001 following the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 2000 (2005 est.)
(H) note: repatriation of Ethiopians who fled to Sudan for refuge from war and famine in earlier years is expected to continue for several years; some Sudanese and Somali refugees, who fled to Ethiopia from the fighting or famine in their own countries, continue to return to their homes (2005 est.)
(I) note: as a result of conflict in neighboring countries, Guinea is host to approximately 150,000 Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugees (2005 est.)
(J) note: according to UNHCR, by the end of 2001 Kenya was host to 220,000 refugees from neighboring countries, including: Somalia 145,000 and Sudan 68,000 (2005 est.)
(K) note: at least 200,000 Liberian refugees are in surrounding countries; the uncertain security situation has hindered their ability to return (2005 est.)
(L) note: does not reflect net flow of an unknown number of illegal immigrants from other countries in the region (2005 est.)

Credits

Rhett Butler Editor

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