Potential revenue from avoided deforestation for 63 tropical countries

Potential revenue from avoided deforestation calculated for 63 tropical countries
mongabay.com
February 26, 2008

Carbon trading from avoided deforestation (REDD) credits could yield billions of dollars for tropical countries, according to analysis by mongabay.com, a leading tropical forest web site.

Using conservative estimates for carbon storage in tropical forests for 63 countries, mongabay.com estimates that reducing deforestation by 10 percent would generate $767 million to $4.6 billion per year at carbon prices ranging from $5-30 per ton of CO2 [tCO2e]. For comparison, the EU's ETS market for carbon credits is presently around $32/tCO2e. A 20 percent reduction would generate $1.5 to 9.2 billion, while a 50 percent reduction would yield $3.8 to 23 billion annually. The figures show the proceeds from REDD carbon credits would dwarf the $1.1 billion in international funding for forestry spent annually over the past decade and could offer developing countries a way to diversify earnings in their forestry sector while at the same time safeguarding important ecosystem services — like watershed protection and biodiversity conservation — and forest option values.

Full article: Carbon trading could protect forests, reduce rural poverty

Potential market value of REDD in 63 tropical countries

	Forest area	Annual forest loss	Carbon	Annual CO2	Proceeds from a 10% reduction in deforestation rate			Proceeds from a 20% reduction in deforestation rate			Proceeds from a 50% reduction in deforestation rate
	2005	1990-2005	Above-ground biomass	from forest loss	$5	$10	$30	$5	$10	$30	$5	$10	$30
Country / Area	1000 ha	1000 ha	t/ha	M tons	$US million			$US million			$US million

Angola	59,104	125	64	14.72	7.36	14.72	44.17	14.72	29.44	88.33	36.80	73.61	220.83
Bangladesh	871	1	29	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.23	0.10	0.19	0.58
Benin	2,351	65	60	7.12	3.56	7.12	21.36	7.12	14.24	42.72	17.80	35.60	106.81
Bolivia	58,740	270	67	33.13	16.56	33.13	99.38	33.13	66.25	198.75	82.81	165.63	496.88
Brazil	477,698	2,822	81	416.74	208.37	416.74	1,250.23	416.74	833.49	2,500.47	1,041.86	2,083.72	6,251.17
Brunei Darussalam	278	2	115	0.49	0.25	0.49	1.48	0.49	0.98	2.95	1.23	2.46	7.39
Burkina Faso	6,794	24	35	1.52	0.76	1.52	4.57	1.52	3.04	9.13	3.80	7.61	22.83
Burundi	152	9	60	1.00	0.50	1.00	3.01	1.00	2.01	6.03	2.51	5.02	15.07
Cambodia	10,447	167	91	27.83	13.92	27.83	83.50	27.83	55.67	167.00	69.58	139.17	417.50
Cameroon	21,245	220	63	25.42	12.71	25.42	76.26	25.42	50.84	152.52	63.55	127.10	381.31
Central African Republic	22,755	30	99	5.44	2.72	5.44	16.31	5.44	10.87	32.62	13.59	27.18	81.54
Chad	11,921	79	16	2.27	1.13	2.27	6.80	2.27	4.53	13.60	5.67	11.34	34.01
Colombia	60,728	47	98	8.55	4.27	8.55	25.64	8.55	17.09	51.27	21.36	42.73	128.19
Congo	22,471	17	186	5.79	2.90	5.79	17.38	5.79	11.59	34.77	14.49	28.97	86.92
Costa Rica	2,391	12	47	0.99	0.50	0.99	2.97	0.99	1.98	5.94	2.48	4.95	14.86
Dominica	46	0	50	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.15	0.06	0.12	0.37
DR Congo	133,610	461	140	118.32	59.16	118.32	354.95	118.32	236.63	709.90	295.79	591.58	1,774.74
Ecuador	10,853	198	150	54.34	27.17	54.34	163.02	54.34	108.68	326.04	135.85	271.70	815.10
El Salvador	298	5	50	0.47	0.24	0.47	1.41	0.47	0.94	2.82	1.18	2.35	7.06
Equatorial Guinea	1,632	15	57	1.59	0.79	1.59	4.76	1.59	3.18	9.53	3.97	7.94	23.82
French Guiana	8,063	2	250	0.86	0.43	0.86	2.57	0.86	1.71	5.13	2.14	4.28	12.83
Gabon	21,775	10	137	2.55	1.27	2.55	7.64	2.55	5.10	15.29	6.37	12.74	38.21
Ghana	5,517	129	66	15.53	7.76	15.53	46.59	15.53	31.06	93.17	38.82	77.64	232.93
Guadeloupe	80	0	50	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.15	0.06	0.12	0.37
Guatemala	3,938	54	96	9.48	4.74	9.48	28.43	9.48	18.96	56.87	23.69	47.39	142.16
Guinea	6,724	46	76	6.38	3.19	6.38	19.13	6.38	12.76	38.27	15.95	31.89	95.67
Guinea-Bissau	2,072	10	24	0.42	0.21	0.42	1.25	0.42	0.83	2.50	1.04	2.08	6.24
Haiti	105	1	57	0.08	0.04	0.08	0.23	0.08	0.15	0.46	0.19	0.38	1.15
Honduras	4,648	182	50	16.73	8.36	16.73	50.18	16.73	33.45	100.36	41.82	83.63	250.89
Indonesia	88,495	1,871	50	171.91	85.95	171.91	515.73	171.91	343.82	1,031.46	429.77	859.55	2,578.65
Jamaica	339	0	80	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.18	0.06	0.12	0.35	0.15	0.29	0.88
Kenya	3,522	12	76	1.73	0.86	1.73	5.19	1.73	3.46	10.38	4.32	8.65	25.95
Laos	16,142	78	73	10.39	5.20	10.39	31.17	10.39	20.78	62.35	25.98	51.96	155.87
Liberia	3,154	60	116	12.79	6.39	12.79	38.36	12.79	25.57	76.72	31.97	63.93	191.80
Madagascar	12,838	57	186	19.42	9.71	19.42	58.27	19.42	38.85	116.54	48.56	97.12	291.35
Malawi	3,402	33	38	2.31	1.15	2.31	6.92	2.31	4.61	13.84	5.77	11.54	34.61
Malaysia	20,890	99	136	24.61	12.31	24.61	73.84	24.61	49.23	147.68	61.53	123.07	369.20
Mexico	64,238	319	40	23.36	11.68	23.36	70.08	23.36	46.72	140.15	58.40	116.80	350.39
Mozambique	19,262	50	25	2.33	1.16	2.33	6.98	2.33	4.65	13.96	5.82	11.64	34.91
Myanmar	32,222	466	79	67.81	33.91	67.81	203.43	67.81	135.62	406.87	169.53	339.06	1,017.17
Nepal	3,636	79	99	14.25	7.13	14.25	42.76	14.25	28.50	85.51	35.63	71.26	213.78
Nicaragua	5,189	90	111	18.33	9.17	18.33	55.00	18.33	36.67	110.00	45.83	91.67	275.01
Nigeria	11,089	410	102	76.53	38.27	76.53	229.60	76.53	153.07	459.21	191.34	382.67	1,148.02
Panama	4,294	5	114	1.14	0.57	1.14	3.43	1.14	2.29	6.86	2.86	5.72	17.15
Papua New Guinea	29,437	139	170	43.34	21.67	43.34	130.03	43.34	86.68	260.05	108.36	216.71	650.14
Paraguay	18,475	179	50	16.39	8.20	16.39	49.17	16.39	32.78	98.34	40.98	81.95	245.85
Peru	68,742	94	170	29.38	14.69	29.38	88.14	29.38	58.76	176.28	73.45	146.90	440.70
Philippines	7,162	227	109	45.59	22.80	45.59	136.78	45.59	91.18	273.55	113.98	227.96	683.88
Senegal	8,673	45	33	2.69	1.35	2.69	8.08	2.69	5.38	16.15	6.73	13.46	40.38
Sierra Leone	2,754	19	40	1.42	0.71	1.42	4.25	1.42	2.84	8.51	3.54	7.09	21.27
Solomon Islands	2,172	40	100	7.28	3.64	7.28	21.85	7.28	14.57	43.71	18.21	36.42	109.27
Somalia	7,131	77	44	6.16	3.08	6.16	18.47	6.16	12.31	36.93	15.39	30.78	92.33
Sri Lanka	1,933	28	17	0.84	0.42	0.84	2.53	0.84	1.69	5.06	2.11	4.22	12.66
Sudan	67,546	589	17	17.86	8.93	17.86	53.57	17.86	35.71	107.14	44.64	89.29	267.86
Tanzania	35,257	412	52	38.97	19.49	38.97	116.92	38.97	77.95	233.84	97.43	194.87	584.60
Thailand	14,520	96	39	6.86	3.43	6.86	20.58	6.86	13.72	41.16	17.15	34.30	102.90
Timor-Leste	798	11	50	1.03	0.51	1.03	3.08	1.03	2.05	6.16	2.57	5.13	15.40
Togo	386	20	50	1.83	0.91	1.83	5.48	1.83	3.65	10.96	4.57	9.14	27.41
Trinidad and Tobago	226	1	84	0.09	0.05	0.09	0.28	0.09	0.18	0.55	0.23	0.46	1.39
Uganda	3,627	86	30	4.76	2.38	4.76	14.29	4.76	9.53	28.58	11.91	23.82	71.46
Venezuela	47,713	288	100	52.71	26.36	52.71	158.14	52.71	105.43	316.29	131.79	263.57	790.72
Zambia	42,452	445	21	17.48	8.74	17.48	52.44	17.48	34.96	104.88	43.70	87.40	262.20
Zimbabwe	17,540	313	24	13.80	6.90	13.80	41.41	13.80	27.61	82.82	34.51	69.02	207.05
TOTAL					766.65	1,533.30	4,599.91	1,533.30	3,066.61	9,199.83	3,833.26	7,666.52	22,999.57

NOTES

"Above-ground biomass" is derived from FAO figures
"Annual CO2 emissions from forest loss M tons" assumes that 50 percent of above-ground biomass carbon is lost during deforestation
Numbers in final 9 columns represent CO2 offset prices per tCO2e

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