Study: economic growth and Green Revolution reduced fertility in India by 46% between 1982 and 1999

Development economists, sociologists and environmentalists alike know that there is a widely observed correlation between economic growth, poverty alleviation and a decline in fertility. The issue of population growth has now become important again within the context of sustainable development and climate change, after having been a 'taboo' within development discourse for the past 10 years.

Rapidly growing populations put pressures on the environment and result in a cycle of ever deeper poverty and underdevelopment. When societies cannot guarantee women and households that their children will survive and live in a decent manner that brings them a certain degree of wealth and security, they tend to fall back on the potent logic of 'wealth in people' instead. In many developing countries this logic still prevails.

Indirectly, demographic transitions towards declining fertility rates can be induced by a set of factors, from economic growth to education for girls, providing access to maternal health and by targeted policies aimed at alleviating poverty amongst vulnerable groups. Direct interventions consist of fertility policies (e.g. China's one child policy) and reproductive health campaigns. However, these cannot succeed if they are not embedded in a broader context of development. Of all the factors, 'economic growth' remains the single most important guarantee for success.

But economic growth in itself brings a range of pressures on the environment and usually implies a switch to fossil fuels and modern energy - the very sources of climate change we now want to prevent. Reducing the use of energy and increasing efficiency may be an option for wealthy countries that already made the demographic transition, but for poor, energy-intensive economies in the South, access to abundant energy remains key for development. Reliance on costly petroleum however has dramatic consequences, blocking development and economic growth. If this situation were to persist for a longer period of time, generalized poverty and increased fertility would follow.

It is here that bioenergy and biofuels get an obvious place and can be tied to a development paradigm that aims to boost economic growth, reduce fertility rates, mitigate climate change but at the same time strengthens energy security and access to energy. The major advantage of modern bioenergy production is that the very groups responsible for rapid population growth - poor rural households in the developing world forced to rely on the logic of 'wealth in people' - can in theory become major participants in this industry. This would especially be true of sub-Saharan African countries, which have a huge sustainable bioenergy potential, but also the world's largest populations employed in agriculture (more here), and the highest fertility rates (map, click to enlarge). If these populations were to be allowed to take part as producers in this huge market, and if 'the rural' were to be transformed into a productive space, the poverty alleviating power of bioenergy could have a straightforward impact on the fertility of rural populations.

Two problems would be tackled at once: a reduction of pressures on the environment because of rapid population growth would occur, and a switch to renewable, low-carbon fuels would follow which would allow poor countries to 'leapfrog' beyond a fossil fuel based development parcours. Obviously reality is far more complex than this idealised picture, and much would depend on strong policies that ensure the rural poor get a valuable stake in this new energy market. However, conceptually speaking, biofuels could be key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and fuel economic growth in the poorest countries, as was concluded by a panel of African scientists at the first high-level bioenergy seminar on the continent that took place earlier this month (earlier post).

The link between population growth and the Millennium Development Goals was highlighted recently by a group of British MPs as well, who stated that a tragic failure to reduce poverty and empower women has been the result of the taboo on population that emerged in the lead-up to the International Conference on Population and Development (IPPD) in 1996. The report, "Return of the Population Growth Factor. Its impact on the MDGs", deplores the 'lost decade' which it says resulted from a move away from talking about population size and growth to the 'language of reproductive health'.

"The language of reproductive health did not spur enthusiasm in parliaments or in wider debate. AIDS was seen as the new health problem, leaving high fertility as yesterday's problem. The impact of population growth in the world's poorest countries was barely noticed." - British MP report on Population Growth

Meanwhile, from India, the world's most populated country, comes a new publication showing how 'economic growth' over the period from 1982 to 1999 reduced fertility by 46 per cent, whereas during the stagnant 1970s no major changes occured. Andrew D. Foster, Brown University and Mark R. Resonzweig of Yale University report their findings in a paper titled "Whether Economic Growth Reduces Fertility" in the latest issue of 'India Policy Forum', published jointly by the National Council of Applied Economic Research and the Brookings Institution.

In it, they show that improved access to maternal health and the establishment of health centers in rural areas contributed marginally to the steep fertility decline. Instead, economic growth as such was the major factor, with the 'Green Revolution' playing a key role. This agricultural and economic revolution led to occupational diversity, expanded labor demand, and resulted in a shift in occupational activities amongst women:
energy :: sustainability :: climate change :: fossil fuels :: energy security :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: poverty alleviation :: economic growth :: fertility :: population growth ::

Richer, more developed economies tend to have lower fertility rates than poorer less developed ones. Over time many formerly poor countries have begun to develop and this process of development has typically been accompanied by sustained fertility declines, Foster and Resonzweig say in their book.

The rapid economic growth enjoyed by India in the period since 1999 has continued to alter the nature of economic relations and thus is likely to further impact the decisions that parents make regarding child bearing.

Rural India over the last three decades can provide the appropriate setting for carrying out such an analysis and as figures show, there was pronounced decline in fertility across all groups in the 1982-1999 while there was relatively limited change in fertility between 1971- and 1982.

Given sustained economic growth that continues to raise wages and increase returns to human capital, the fall in fertility in India will continue for the foreseeable future, the paper notes.

The authors indicate that the findings of the significant literature linking economic growth and fertility decline applies clearly to the Indian situation.

They note that prominence given to maternal education was a source of fertility decline in India. But, on aggregate, only 3.4% of the 46% decline in fertility could be attributed to the growth of health centres in the rural areas. The authors point out that during this period health centre coverage in the rural areas increased by less than ten percentage points.

The Green Revolution, along with other economic changes that were partly responsive to the increased growth and occupational diversification were far more important. These developments led to an expansion of labour demand. The resulting rise in wages not only made child-rearing more expensive but shifted the nature of women's activities both within and outside the household. As a result patterns emerged that mark a fundamental change in women's autonomy, they say.

The analysis by the authors suggests that the areas of high agricultural productivity growth not only experience decline in fertility but also increases in the schooling of children and in the time devoted by married women to non-household work. It also suggests that aggregate wage changes in dominated by increase in the value of female wages explain 15 per cent of the decline in fertility over the 1982-99 period.

Map: World fertility rates, 2000. Credit: World Health Organisation.

References:
Andrew D. Foster, Mark R. Resonzweig, "Whether Economic Growth Reduces Fertility", India Policy Forum, Volume 3, 2006-07.

The Economic Times: Does economic growth reduce fertility? August 12, 2007.

British All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health: Return of the Population Growth Factor. Its impact upon the Millennium Development Goals [*.pdf]. Report of Hearings, January 2007.

Biopact: Report: biofuels key to achieving Millennium Development Goals in Africa - August 02, 2007

Biopact: Worldwatch Institute: biofuels may bring major benefits to world's rural poor - August 06, 2007