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20% of the Brazilian Amazon's tree species to go extinct Jeremy Hance, mongabay.com August 11, 2008
The research, published in the early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), suggests that under optimistic scenarios, 20 percent of tree species will disappear. In a bleaker scenario, 33 percent will go extinct. If this proves true, Amazonian trees may be in as much danger as coral reefs and amphibians, both of which face extinction crises. Although, no one knows the actual number of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon, the authors, led by Stephen P. Hubbell of the University of California at Los Angeles, used various mathematical theories to estimate the number of species at just over 11,200, including 5,308 rare species with less than 10,000 surviving individuals. Predicted extinction rates for these rare species are high, ranging from 37-50 percent.
The researchers insist that any forecast suffers from several unknowns — most notably a lack of data — across an immense study area. Further the authors took into account only habitat loss in relation to extinction. They acknowledge that biological interdependence may result in more extinction, for example if a bat pollinator goes extinct how will that ripple through the tree species it aided in pollination, the same goes for insects, birds, and mammals. The best way, the authors argue, to have most accurate descriptions of species loss in the coming decades is with more research.
Such information may be the Amazon's most important conservation tool. Stephen P. Hubbell, Fangliang He, Richard Condit, Luís Borda-de-Agua, James Kellner, and Hans ter Steege (2008). How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? PNAS Online Early Edition for the week of August 11-15, 2008.
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