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Calculating the value of avoided deforestation
mongabay.com
October 31, 2006
Avoided deforestation will be a hot point of discussion at next week's climate meeting in Nairobi, Kenya. Already a coalition of 15 rainforest nations[1]have proposed a plan whereby industrialized nations would pay them to protect their forests to offset greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, last month Brazil -- which has the world's largest extent of tropical rainforests and the world's highest rate of forest loss -- said it will promote a similar initiative at the talks. At stake: potentially billions of dollars for developing countries and the future of the world's climate.
This table accompanies the following article:Avoided deforestation could help fight third world poverty under global warming pact
| Country | Total forest area | | Forest carbon | Carbon released from deforestation | Potential value of avoided deforestation | GDP (PPP) | GDP (Exchange rate) | External debt | Population | Potential increase in per capita income |
| 2000 | 2005 | Annual forest loss | In above-ground biomass | Total carbon | Low end | High end | Total | Per capita | Total | Per capita | Total | Per capita | Total | Per capita | Total | resulting from carbon finance |
| 1000 ha | 1000 ha | ha | M t | M t | tons/ha | tons/ha | millions | | millions | | millions | | millions | | millions | [high scenario] |
| FAO | FAO | FAO | FAO | FAO | FAO | [2] | | | CIA | CIA | CIA | CIA | CIA | CIA | CIA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Angola | 59,728 | 59,104 | -124,800 | 3,803 | 5,492 | 64.3 | 200 | $32 - $499 | $2.65 - $41.16 | $45,930 | $3,787 | $24,350 | $2,007.90 | 9,401 | $775.21 | 12 | 0.13% - 2.05% |
| Argentina | 33,770 | 33,021 | -149,800 | 1,912 | 4,059 | 57.9 | 200 | $35 - $599 | $0.87 - $15.01 | $518,100 | $12,978 | $182,000 | $4,558.91 | 118,200 | $2,960.79 | 40 | 0.02% - 0.33% |
| Bolivia | 60,091 | 58,740 | -270,200 | 3,926 | 5,877 | 66.8 | 200 | $72 - $1,081 | $8.04 - $120.24 | $25,950 | $2,887 | $9,657 | $1,074.31 | 6,309 | $701.85 | 9 | 0.75% - 11.19% |
| Brazil | 493,213 | 477,698 | -3,103,000 | 38,480 | 104,638 | 80.6 | 200 | $1,000 - $12,412 | $5.32 - $65.99 | $1,556,000 | $8,273 | $619,700 | $3,294.91 | 188,000 | $999.58 | 188 | 0.16% - 2.00% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 288 | 278 | -2,000 | 32 | 50 | 115.1 | 200 | $1 - $8 | $2.43 - $21.08 | $6,842 | $18,032 | N/A | N/A | N/A | #VALUE! | 0 | N/A - N/A |
| Cambodia | 11,541 | 10,447 | -218,800 | 952 | 1,426 | 91.1 | 200 | $80 - $875 | $5.75 - $63.05 | $30,650 | $2,208 | $4,729 | $340.67 | #VALUE! | #VALUE! | 14 | 1.69% - 18.51% |
| Cameroon | 22,345 | 21,245 | -220,000 | 1,339 | 2,095 | 63.0 | 150 | $55 - $660 | $3.20 - $38.06 | $40,830 | $2,355 | $15,350 | $885.20 | 9,168 | $528.70 | 17 | 0.36% - 4.30% |
| Central African Rep | 22,903 | 22,755 | -29,600 | 2,259 | 3,008 | 99.3 | 200 | $12 - $118 | $2.73 - $27.51 | $4,784 | $1,112 | $1,462 | $339.73 | 1,060 | $246.32 | 4 | 0.80% - 8.10% |
| Colombia | 60,963 | 60,728 | -47,000 | 5,972 | 9,271 | 98.3 | 200 | $18 - $188 | $0.42 - $4.31 | $337,500 | $7,742 | $97,730 | $2,241.87 | 32,350 | $742.09 | 44 | 0.02% - 0.19% |
| Congo | 22,556 | 22,471 | -17,000 | 4,178 | 5,181 | 185.9 | 200 | $13 - $68 | $3.41 - $18.37 | $4,631 | $1,251 | $4,694 | $1,267.86 | 5,000 | $1,350.51 | 4 | 0.27% - 1.45% |
| DR Congo | 135,207 | 133,610 | -319,400 | 18,688 | 32,152 | 139.9 | 200 | $179 - $1,278 | $2.85 - $20.39 | $40,670 | $649 | $7,328 | $116.95 | 10,600 | $169.17 | 63 | 2.44% - 17.43% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 1,708 | 1,632 | -15,200 | 93 | 130 | 57.0 | 150 | $3 - $46 | $6.41 - $84.43 | $25,690 | $47,564 | $7,644 | $14,152.70 | 353 | $653.57 | 1 | 0.05% - 0.60% |
| Gabon | 21,826 | 21,775 | -10,200 | 2,986 | 3,839 | 137.1 | 200 | $6 - $41 | $3.93 - $28.63 | $9,535 | $6,692 | $6,697 | $4,699.96 | 3,903 | $2,739.13 | 1 | 0.08% - 0.61% |
| Ghana | 6,094 | 5,517 | -115,400 | 363 | 566 | 65.8 | 150 | $30 - $346 | $1.36 - $15.45 | $54,450 | $2,430 | $9,413 | $420.04 | 6,999 | $312.32 | 22 | 0.32% - 3.68% |
| Guatemala | 4,208 | 3,938 | -54,000 | 377 | 572 | 95.7 | 200 | $21 - $216 | $1.68 - $17.57 | $56,860 | $4,625 | $26,980 | $2,194.65 | 5,503 | $447.63 | 12 | 0.08% - 0.80% |
| Guinea | 6,904 | 6,724 | -36,000 | 513 | 697 | 76.3 | 200 | $11 - $144 | $1.13 - $14.86 | $18,990 | $1,960 | $3,576 | $369.03 | 3,460 | $357.06 | 10 | 0.31% - 4.03% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 2,120 | 2,072 | -9,600 | 49 | 80 | 23.6 | 200 | $1 - $38 | $0.63 - $26.63 | $1,185 | $822 | $280 | $194.17 | 942 | $652.90 | 1 | 0.32% - 13.71% |
| Haiti | 109 | 105 | -800 | 6 | 9 | 57.1 | 150 | $0 - $2 | $0.02 - $0.29 | $14,150 | $1,703 | $4,321 | $520.07 | 1,313 | $158.03 | 8 | 0.00% - 0.06% |
| Indonesia | 97,852 | 88,495 | -1,871,400 | 4,434 | 6,725 | 50.1 | 150 | $375 - $5,614 | $1.53 - $22.87 | $865,600 | $3,527 | $270,000 | $1,100.01 | 135,000 | $550.00 | 245 | 0.14% - 2.08% |
| Jamaica | 341 | 339 | -400 | 27 | 67 | 79.6 | 150 | $0 - $1 | $0.05 - $0.44 | $12,170 | $4,412 | $9,127 | $3,309.13 | 7,162 | $2,596.69 | 3 | 0.00% - 0.01% |
| Kenya | 3,582 | 3,522 | -12,000 | 268 | 371 | 76.1 | 150 | $4 - $36 | $0.11 - $1.04 | $37,150 | $1,070 | $16,110 | $464.16 | 7,391 | $212.95 | 35 | 0.02% - 0.22% |
| Laos | 16,532 | 16,142 | -78,000 | 1,171 | 1,685 | 72.5 | 150 | $23 - $234 | $3.55 - $36.74 | $12,130 | $1,905 | $2,523 | $396.17 | 2,490 | $390.99 | 6 | 0.90% - 9.27% |
| Liberia | 3,455 | 3,154 | -60,200 | 365 | 516 | 115.7 | 200 | $28 - $241 | $9.16 - $79.16 | $2,755 | $906 | N/A | N/A | 3,200 | $1,051.94 | 3 | N/A - N/A |
| Madagascar | 13,023 | 12,838 | -37,000 | 2,389 | 3,321 | 186.1 | 200 | $28 - $148 | $1.48 - $7.96 | $16,360 | $880 | $4,719 | $253.77 | 4,600 | $247.37 | 19 | 0.58% - 3.14% |
| Malawi | 3,567 | 3,402 | -33,000 | 130 | 161 | 38.2 | 100 | $5 - $66 | $0.39 - $5.07 | $7,524 | $578 | $1,984 | $152.45 | 3,287 | $252.58 | 13 | 0.25% - 3.33% |
| Malaysia | 21,591 | 20,890 | -140,200 | 2,831 | 4,036 | 135.5 | 200 | $76 - $561 | $3.12 - $23.00 | $290,200 | $11,900 | $122,000 | $5,002.90 | 52,000 | $2,132.38 | 24 | 0.06% - 0.46% |
| Mauritius | 38 | 37 | -200 | 3 | 5 | 81.1 | 200 | $0 - $1 | $0.05 - $0.64 | $16,090 | $12,967 | $6,681 | $5,384.31 | 3,246 | $2,616.00 | 1 | 0.00% - 0.01% |
| Mozambique | 19,512 | 19,262 | -50,000 | 489 | 691 | 25.4 | 100 | $5 - $100 | $0.26 - $5.08 | $26,030 | $1,322 | $5,727 | $290.91 | 5,456 | $277.14 | 20 | 0.09% - 1.75% |
| Myanmar | 34,554 | 32,222 | -466,400 | 2,555 | 3,584 | 79.3 | 200 | $148 - $1,866 | $3.12 - $39.37 | $78,740 | $1,662 | $7,464 | $157.53 | 6,990 | $147.52 | 47 | 1.98% - 24.99% |
| Nepal | 3,900 | 3,636 | -52,800 | 359 | 897 | 98.7 | 200 | $21 - $211 | $0.74 - $7.47 | $39,900 | $1,411 | $6,655 | $235.27 | 3,340 | $118.07 | 28 | 0.31% - 3.17% |
| Nicaragua | 5,539 | 5,189 | -70,000 | 577 | 795 | 111.2 | 200 | $31 - $280 | $5.59 - $50.27 | $16,090 | $2,889 | $5,030 | $903.03 | 3,188 | $572.34 | 6 | 0.62% - 5.57% |
| Nigeria | 13,137 | 11,089 | -409,600 | 1,130 | 1,597 | 101.9 | 200 | $167 - $1,638 | $1.27 - $12.43 | $174,100 | $1,320 | $77,330 | $586.46 | 32,450 | $246.09 | 132 | 0.22% - 2.12% |
| Panama | 4,307 | 4,294 | -2,600 | 490 | 883 | 114.1 | 200 | $1 - $10 | $0.37 - $3.26 | $22,760 | $7,132 | $14,890 | $4,665.78 | 9,758 | $3,057.67 | 3 | 0.01% - 0.07% |
| Philippines | 7,949 | 7,162 | -157,400 | 783 | 1,093 | 109.3 | 200 | $69 - $630 | $0.77 - $7.04 | $451,300 | $5,044 | $91,360 | $1,021.14 | 65,710 | $734.45 | 89 | 0.08% - 0.69% |
| Senegal | 8,898 | 8,673 | -45,000 | 283 | 385 | 32.6 | 100 | $6 - $90 | $0.49 - $7.51 | $20,530 | $1,713 | $7,972 | $665.05 | 3,529 | $294.40 | 12 | 0.07% - 1.13% |
| Sri Lanka | 2,082 | 1,933 | -29,800 | 32 | 48 | 16.6 | 100 | $2 - $60 | $0.10 - $2.95 | $85,340 | $4,220 | $21,620 | $1,069.12 | 11,050 | $546.43 | 20 | 0.01% - 0.28% |
| Tanzania | 37,318 | 35,257 | -412,200 | 1,818 | 2,570 | 51.6 | 100 | $85 - $824 | $2.27 - $22.02 | $27,070 | $723 | $12,120 | $323.67 | 8,178 | $218.40 | 37 | 0.70% - 6.80% |
| Thailand | 14,814 | 14,520 | -58,800 | 564 | 795 | 38.8 | 100 | $9 - $118 | $0.14 - $1.82 | $560,700 | $8,675 | $183,900 | $2,845.36 | 52,460 | $811.68 | 65 | 0.00% - 0.06% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 228 | 226 | -400 | 19 | 26 | 84.1 | 200 | $0 - $2 | $0.13 - $1.50 | $18,010 | $16,897 | $13,020 | $12,215.69 | 2,767 | $2,596.07 | 1 | 0.00% - 0.01% |
| Uganda | 4,059 | 3,627 | -86,400 | 109 | 157 | 30.1 | 100 | $10 - $173 | $0.37 - $6.13 | $48,730 | $1,728 | $7,909 | $280.50 | 4,973 | $176.37 | 28 | 0.13% - 2.18% |
| Zambia | 44,676 | 42,452 | -444,800 | 910 | 1,318 | 21.4 | 100 | $38 - $890 | $3.32 - $77.34 | $10,590 | $921 | $5,351 | $465.22 | 4,641 | $403.49 | 12 | 0.71% - 16.62% |
| Zimbabwe | 19,105 | 17,540 | -313,000 | 422 | 610 | 24.1 | 100 | $30 - $626 | $2.46 - $51.16 | $28,370 | $2,318 | $3,207 | $262.08 | 5,216 | $426.26 | 12 | 0.94% - 19.52% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| TOTAL | 1,345,633 | 1,297,761 | -9,574,400 | 108,086 | 211,478 | 83.3 | 200 | $2,730 - $33,038 | $2.43 - $29.16 | $5,660,986 | $4,310.23 | $1,922,610 | $1,463.86 | 841,443 | $640.67 | 1,313 | 0.14% - 1.72% |
RANKED BY POTENTIAL GDP CONTRBUTION AND INCLUDING 8 COUNTRIES OMITTED FROM THE ABOVE TABLE
The data for these eight countries is a little less reliable than the other 42 countries but ever effort has been made to make the estimates are accurate as possible.
| COUNTRY | Annual deforestation rate
2000-2005
(ha) | High end estimate of carbon released from deforestation
(tons/ha) | Population
(millions) | GDP (official exchange rate)
(millions ) | GDP (official exchange rate)
per capita | Avoided deforestation value
(thousands) | Avoided deforestation value
per captia | Potential income gain from avoided deforestation payments |
| Myanmar | 466,400 | 200 | 47.38 | $7,464 | $158 | $1,865,600 | $39 | 25% |
| Guyana | 15,104 | 200 | 0.77 | $782 | $1,020 | $160,000 | $209 | 20% |
| Zimbabwe | 313,000 | 100 | 12.24 | $3,207 | $262 | $626,000 | $51 | 20% |
| Cambodia | 218,800 | 200 | 13.88 | $4,729 | $341 | $875,200 | $63 | 19% |
| DR Congo | 319,400 | 200 | 62.66 | $7,328 | $117 | $1,277,600 | $20 | 17% |
| Zambia | 444,800 | 100 | 11.50 | $5,351 | $465 | $889,600 | $77 | 17% |
| Suriname | 14,776 | 200 | 0.44 | $1,300 | $2,961 | $180,000 | $410 | 14% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 9,600 | 200 | 1.44 | $280 | $194 | $38,400 | $27 | 14% |
| Bolivia | 270,200 | 200 | 8.99 | $9,657 | $1,074 | $1,080,800 | $120 | 11% |
| Laos | 78,000 | 150 | 6.37 | $2,523 | $396 | $234,000 | $37 | 9% |
| Liberia | 60,200 | 200 | 3.04 | $2,700 | $888 | $240,800 | $79 | 9% |
| Central African Rep | 29,600 | 200 | 4.30 | $1,462 | $340 | $118,400 | $28 | 8% |
| Tanzania | 412,200 | 100 | 37.45 | $12,120 | $324 | $824,400 | $22 | 7% |
| Nicaragua | 70,000 | 200 | 5.57 | $5,030 | $903 | $280,000 | $50 | 6% |
| Solomon Islands | 2,172 | 200 | 0.55 | $700 | $1,268 | $32,000 | $58 | 5% |
| Cameroon | 220,000 | 150 | 17.34 | $15,350 | $885 | $660,000 | $38 | 4% |
| Guinea | 36,000 | 200 | 9.69 | $3,576 | $369 | $144,000 | $15 | 4% |
| Ghana | 115,400 | 150 | 22.41 | $9,413 | $420 | $346,200 | $15 | 4% |
| Malawi | 33,000 | 100 | 13.01 | $1,984 | $152 | $66,000 | $5 | 3% |
| Nepal | 52,800 | 200 | 28.29 | $6,655 | $235 | $211,200 | $7 | 3% |
| Madagascar | 37,000 | 200 | 18.60 | $4,719 | $254 | $148,000 | $8 | 3% |
| Papua New Guinea | 29,437 | 200 | 5.67 | $3,924 | $692 | $111,200 | $20 | 3% |
| Uganda | 86,400 | 100 | 28.20 | $7,909 | $281 | $172,800 | $6 | 2% |
| Nigeria | 409,600 | 200 | 131.86 | $77,330 | $586 | $1,638,400 | $12 | 2% |
| Indonesia | 1,871,400 | 150 | 245.45 | $270,000 | $1,100 | $5,614,200 | $23 | 2% |
| Brazil | 3,103,000 | 200 | 188.08 | $619,700 | $3,295 | $12,412,000 | $66 | 2% |
| Mozambique | 50,000 | 100 | 19.69 | $5,727 | $291 | $100,000 | $5 | 2% |
| Angola | 124,800 | 150 | 12.13 | $24,350 | $2,008 | $374,400 | $31 | 2% |
| Congo | 17,000 | 200 | 3.70 | $4,694 | $1,268 | $68,000 | $18 | 1% |
| Senegal | 45,000 | 100 | 11.99 | $7,972 | $665 | $90,000 | $8 | 1% |
| Tanzania | 35,257 | 100 | 37.45 | $12,120 | $324 | $164,800 | $4 | 1% |
| Guatemala | 54,000 | 200 | 12.29 | $26,980 | $2,195 | $216,000 | $18 | 1% |
| Philippines | 157,400 | 200 | 89.47 | $91,360 | $1,021 | $629,600 | $7 | 1% |
| Gabon | 10,200 | 200 | 1.42 | $6,697 | $4,700 | $40,800 | $29 | 1% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 15,200 | 150 | 0.54 | $7,644 | $14,153 | $45,600 | $84 | 1% |
| Malaysia | 140,200 | 200 | 24.39 | $122,000 | $5,003 | $560,800 | $23 | 0% |
| Argentina | 149,800 | 200 | 39.92 | $182,000 | $4,559 | $599,200 | $15 | 0% |
| Sri Lanka | 29,800 | 100 | 20.22 | $21,620 | $1,069 | $59,600 | $3 | 0% |
| Kenya | 12,000 | 150 | 34.71 | $16,110 | $464 | $36,000 | $1 | 0% |
| Colombia | 47,000 | 200 | 43.59 | $97,730 | $2,242 | $188,000 | $4 | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2,000 | 200 | 0.38 | $6,000 | $15,813 | $8,000 | $21 | 0% |
| Panama | 2,600 | 200 | 3.19 | $14,890 | $4,666 | $10,400 | $3 | 0% |
| Thailand | 58,800 | 100 | 64.63 | $183,900 | $2,845 | $117,600 | $2 | 0% |
| Haiti | 800 | 150 | 8.31 | $4,321 | $520 | $2,400 | $- | 0% |
| Jamaica | 400 | 150 | 2.76 | $9,127 | $3,309 | $1,200 | $- | 0% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 400 | 200 | 1.07 | $13,020 | $12,216 | $1,600 | $2 | 0% |
| Mauritius | 200 | 200 | 1.24 | $6,681 | $5,384 | $800 | $1 | 0% |
| Costa Rica | 2,391 | 100 | 4.10 | $19,380 | $4,727 | $7,600 | $2 | 0% |
| Dominican Republic | 1,376 | 100 | 9.20 | $18,150 | $1,973 | $20 | $- | 0% |
| Ecuador | 10,853 | 175 | 13.60 | $30,700 | $2,257 | $138,600 | $10 | 0% |
| Peru | 68,742 | 200 | 28.30 | $69,810 | $2,467 | $75,200 | $3 | 0% |
| Venezuela | 47,713 | 150 | 25.73 | $106,100 | $4,124 | $172,800 | $7 | 0% |
This table accompanies the following article:Avoided deforestation could help fight third world poverty under global warming pact
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