FAO unveils important bioenergy assessment tool to ensure food security, shows global biofuels potential
An international team of scientists under the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has unveiled a much needed planning tool that allows countries to tap their bioenergy production potential while ensuring food security. The decision-support tool is based on mathematical models often referred to by Biopact. Peru, Thailand and Tanzania will try it out first, before it is released to the international community. The tool makes the discussion about the biofuels potential and the food versus fuel debate far more rigorous.
Scientists know that the technical potential for the sustainable production of bioenergy and biofuels is very large. Under the QUICKSCAN model, developed by the University of Utrecht's Copernicus Institute, used by the International Energy Agency and now also by the FAO, this potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products).
The QUICKSCAN model, widely recognised as being the most robust and complete analytical framework, takes a bottom-up approach (schematic, click to enlarge) to estimate the sustainable bioenergy production potential. It first calculates and projects all food, fiber, fodder and forest product needs of growing populations, under different population growth scenarios. It then looks at the amount of land left for biofuels and bioenergy. This land base is explicitly taken to be non-forest land (no deforestation allowed) and sets aside land that is protected. It then allocates different crops to different types of land after which a scenario component is introduced reflecting potential yield and land availability increases resulting from agronomical changes.
The end result of the projections is an amount of bioenergy that a given region can produce sustainably over time, while meeting all needs of growing local populations and without damaging the environment. Maximum potential for sub-Saharan Africa is 347 EJ per year by 2050; for South America and the Caribbean 279 EJ, for the C.I.S. and Baltic States 269 EJ (map, click to enlarge). Biopact has consistently based its discussion of the regional and global biofuels opportunity on these assessments and the research papers developed from it (see references).
The tool now developed by a team of economists from FAO, Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute and Darmstadt’s Oeko-Institut, is based on coupling QUICKSCAN to COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries. The result is the new analytical framework, unveiled at a two-day experts’ meeting of FAO’s Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) project, which must make it possible for countries to develop strategies to tap the technical potential and turn it into real potential in a socially sustainable way.
The three-year project, funded by Germany, is aimed at making sure that bioenergy does not impair global food security. The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations.
Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are the new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets; the capacity to strengthen rural development; and the opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: food security :: rural development :: climate change :: UN :: FAO ::
Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimise negative consequences while maximising positive outcomes. A prerequisite for running the framework is the establishment of a bioenergy development scenario, a process in which FAO helps government clearly define their bioenergy policy options and the various possible strategies to achieve those options.
The analytical framework then makes it possible, through five steps, to assess: technical biomass potential; biomass production costs; the economic bioenergy potential; macro-economic consequences; national and household-level impact and consequences on food security:
Analysis of the results will make it possible to determine actual bioenergy potential and which households are most vulnerable and thus at risk of food insecurity.
The model draws on existing mathematical modelling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.
The framework will be field-tested in three countries – Peru, Thailand and Tanzania – before the analytical framework methodology is made available to the international community at large.
Alexander Müller, FAO assistant director-general for natural resources and the environment, said FAO would make every effort to ensure that food security issues are on the table when a successor to the present Kyoto Protocol is negotiated.
Müller said climate change could reduce yields from the main crops in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa by up to 40 percent in the next 25 years, notably in Southern Africa. In other parts such as Eastern Africa and the Sahel yields could increase by up to 20 percent. But food security is not part of the negotiations road map adopted at last December’s UN Conference in Bali, and this hiatus must be taken into account.
The challenge will be huge for sub-Saharan Africa, Mr Muller said, adding that according to experts the development of the bioenergy sector in Africa could help mitigate the effects of climate change there.
FAO is organizing a High Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.
References:
FAO: FAO unveils new bioenergy assessment tool - February 11, 2008.
FAO Natural Resources Management and Environment Department: FAO Climate Change and Bioenergy Unit.
IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee: Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World's Future Energy Demand - September 2007.
The Quickscan model has resulted in a large number of important research reports and papers about the global and regional bioenergy potential. The model is widely applied by researchers who work for the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 40, which analyses global biomass potential and trade.
Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute's researchers) are:
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.
M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134
Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.
André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342
I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104
Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81
Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19
K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.
Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels - Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629
C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283
M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041
V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)
E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).
J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)
Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)
Scientists know that the technical potential for the sustainable production of bioenergy and biofuels is very large. Under the QUICKSCAN model, developed by the University of Utrecht's Copernicus Institute, used by the International Energy Agency and now also by the FAO, this potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products).
The QUICKSCAN model, widely recognised as being the most robust and complete analytical framework, takes a bottom-up approach (schematic, click to enlarge) to estimate the sustainable bioenergy production potential. It first calculates and projects all food, fiber, fodder and forest product needs of growing populations, under different population growth scenarios. It then looks at the amount of land left for biofuels and bioenergy. This land base is explicitly taken to be non-forest land (no deforestation allowed) and sets aside land that is protected. It then allocates different crops to different types of land after which a scenario component is introduced reflecting potential yield and land availability increases resulting from agronomical changes.
The end result of the projections is an amount of bioenergy that a given region can produce sustainably over time, while meeting all needs of growing local populations and without damaging the environment. Maximum potential for sub-Saharan Africa is 347 EJ per year by 2050; for South America and the Caribbean 279 EJ, for the C.I.S. and Baltic States 269 EJ (map, click to enlarge). Biopact has consistently based its discussion of the regional and global biofuels opportunity on these assessments and the research papers developed from it (see references).
The tool now developed by a team of economists from FAO, Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute and Darmstadt’s Oeko-Institut, is based on coupling QUICKSCAN to COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries. The result is the new analytical framework, unveiled at a two-day experts’ meeting of FAO’s Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) project, which must make it possible for countries to develop strategies to tap the technical potential and turn it into real potential in a socially sustainable way.
The three-year project, funded by Germany, is aimed at making sure that bioenergy does not impair global food security. The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations.
Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are the new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets; the capacity to strengthen rural development; and the opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: food security :: rural development :: climate change :: UN :: FAO ::
Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimise negative consequences while maximising positive outcomes. A prerequisite for running the framework is the establishment of a bioenergy development scenario, a process in which FAO helps government clearly define their bioenergy policy options and the various possible strategies to achieve those options.
The analytical framework then makes it possible, through five steps, to assess: technical biomass potential; biomass production costs; the economic bioenergy potential; macro-economic consequences; national and household-level impact and consequences on food security:
Analysis of the results will make it possible to determine actual bioenergy potential and which households are most vulnerable and thus at risk of food insecurity.
The model draws on existing mathematical modelling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.
The framework will be field-tested in three countries – Peru, Thailand and Tanzania – before the analytical framework methodology is made available to the international community at large.
Alexander Müller, FAO assistant director-general for natural resources and the environment, said FAO would make every effort to ensure that food security issues are on the table when a successor to the present Kyoto Protocol is negotiated.
Müller said climate change could reduce yields from the main crops in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa by up to 40 percent in the next 25 years, notably in Southern Africa. In other parts such as Eastern Africa and the Sahel yields could increase by up to 20 percent. But food security is not part of the negotiations road map adopted at last December’s UN Conference in Bali, and this hiatus must be taken into account.
The challenge will be huge for sub-Saharan Africa, Mr Muller said, adding that according to experts the development of the bioenergy sector in Africa could help mitigate the effects of climate change there.
FAO is organizing a High Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.
References:
FAO: FAO unveils new bioenergy assessment tool - February 11, 2008.
FAO Natural Resources Management and Environment Department: FAO Climate Change and Bioenergy Unit.
IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee: Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World's Future Energy Demand - September 2007.
The Quickscan model has resulted in a large number of important research reports and papers about the global and regional bioenergy potential. The model is widely applied by researchers who work for the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 40, which analyses global biomass potential and trade.
Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute's researchers) are:
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.
M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134
Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.
André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342
I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104
Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81
Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19
K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.
Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels - Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629
C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283
M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041
V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)
E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).
J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)
Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)
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