Site icon Conservation news

Scientists could name every species on Earth in 50 years

New species of agama lizard discovered in remote rainforest in Vietnam: Calotes bachae. Photo by Peter Geissler.
New species of agama lizard discovered in remote rainforest in Vietnam: Calotes bachae. Photo by Peter Geissler.

A bold new paper in Science argues that the world’s species could be named and described before they vanish into extinction, though the threat of eventual extinction will remain for many, especially as climate change worsens. The scientists say that contrary to popular belief, there are more taxonomists working than ever before and there are likely less species on Earth than often reported, making finding and naming the world’s species within reach this century.

“Our findings are potentially good news for the conservation of global biodiversity,” said lead author Mark Costello from The University of Auckland’s Leigh Marine Laboratory.

Over the last decade researchers have described 17,5000 new species a year on average, most of which were insects (especially beetles). But every year, scientists still find new mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. However, predictions that there are up to 100 million species on Earth made it appear hopeless that scientists would ever describe them all, especially before they vanished. However, the new paper argues that most likely there are between 2-8 million species on Earth.

“Previous estimates of 30 to 100 million based on potential deep-sea diversity and estimates of insect host specificity now seem highly unlikely,” the researchers write. Costello says such estimates may have actually hurt conservation efforts.

New species of mouse lemur announced last year: Microcebus gerpi. Photo by Blanchard Randrianambinina.
New species of mouse lemur announced last year: Microcebus gerpi. Photo by Blanchard Randrianambinina.

“Over-estimates of the number of species on Earth are self-defeating because they can make attempts to discover and conserve biodiversity appear to be hopeless,” says Costello. “Our work suggests that this is far from the case.”

The researchers argue that with just a slight increase in effort, 2 million species could be described by 2050, and 3.5 million species by 2100.

So far, around 1.5 million species have been named and described, since the Swedish scientist, Carl Linnaeus, kicked off the effort in the 18th Century. Linnaeus was the first of the taxonomists, i.e. scientists devoted to the formal discovery and description of the world’s species. In recent years, many scientists in Europe and North America have lamented that taxonomy was dying, and with it our chance to catalogue global biodiversity. However, the paper in Science found the opposite to be true: taxonomy is thriving like never before.

“The numbers of taxonomists may be decreasing in some [… ] countries that formerly led the field of taxonomy […],” the scientists write, but add that “the increasing number of taxonomists is partially due to the increase in taxonomists based in South America and Asia.”

The researchers believe that there may be two-to-three more taxonomists working now than in the 1960s. Amateur taxonomists are also on the rise for some types of species.

In addition, while every year brings more-and-more species added to the IUCN Red List of threatened species, the scientists say that documented extinctions still remain relatively low.

“We do not dispute that we are in a human caused mass extinction phase with many species committed to extinction, but actual extinctions
have been fewer than arguably expected,” they write, arguing that fewer species have gone extinct than sometimes reported due to conservation efforts, survival in degraded habitats, and extinction debt, i.e. some species that are doomed to eventual extinction still hang-on in small, dwindling populations.

“Of course, there will have been some species which have disappeared without being recorded, but not many we think,” co-author Nigel Stork with Griffith University said. The scientists argue that extinction rates are likely less than 1 percent every decade, meaning that if 5 million species inhabit Earth, up to 50,000 species could have vanished this decade. Still, other scientists believe the extinction rate remains closer to 5 percent a decade.

Whatever the current extinction rate, the scientists say the it is likely to go higher, especially as the impacts from climate change increase.

“Local threats, such as habitat loss, hunting, and harvesting, are now acting synergistically with climate change,” they write.

Given this the scientists recommend stepping up taxonomy efforts. They embrace a previous plan that argued that with an annual investment of $0.5 to $1 million, taxonomy could increase by ten times. According to the authors, this would likely “result in the description of all species within 50 years.”

Still, the scientists write, “the scale of this taxonomic challenge must not be underestimated. A 1-month survey of seabed in New Caledonia found 127,652 specimens and 2738 species of mollusks, of which 80 percent were new to science. A sample of 24,000 specimens of insects from the canopy of 10 trees in Borneo took 2 years to sort to 5,000 morphospecies.”

The scientists conclude that with only a “modest increase” in taxonomic and conservation efforts “most species could be discovered and protected from extinction.”

New species of tree frog from Vietnam: Helen's tree frog. Photo courtesy of Jodi Rowley.
New species of tree frog from Vietnam: Helen’s tree frog. Photo courtesy of Jodi Rowley.

New species of super tiny chameleon from Madagascar: Juvenile Brookesia micra on match.
New species of super tiny chameleon from Madagascar: Juvenile Brookesia micra on match.

CITATION: Mark J. Costello, Robert M. May, Nigel E. Stork. Can We Name Earth’s Species
Before They Go Extinct? Science. Volume 339. 2013.

Related articles

Wealthy nations, excluding U.S., pledge to double funds for biodiversity

(10/22/2012) Although negotiations came down to the wire, nations finally brokered a new deal at the 11th meeting of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Hyderabad, India; at its heart is a pledge to double resources from wealthier countries to the developing world by 2015 to conserve embattled species and ecosystems. While no numbers were put on the table, observers say a doubling of current resources would mean around $10-12 billion a year. However, this amount is still far short of what scientists and conservation groups say is necessary to stem current extinctions.

India pledges over $60 million for biodiversity, but experts say much more needed

(10/18/2012) The Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, pledged around $50 million (Rs. 264 crore) for domestic biodiversity protection, reports the Hindu. The pledge came this week at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Hyderabad, India. The CBD has set bold goals on stemming the rate of extinction worldwide, but these have suffered from a lack of funding. India also said it had set aside another $10 million (Rs. 50 crore) for biodiversity projects abroad. Still, such funds are far below what scientists say is necessary to stem ongoing extinctions.

Saving the world’s species from oblivion will cost around $80 billion a year, but still a good deal

(10/11/2012) If the world is to conserve its wealth of life—species great and small, beautiful and terrible, beloved and unknown—it will cost from $3.41-4.76 billion annually in targeted conservation funds, according to a new study in Science. But that’s not all, the cost of protecting and managing the world’s conservation areas was estimated at an additional $76.1 billion a year.

Bird diversity at risk if ‘agroforests’ replaced with farmland

(09/13/2012) Agroforests contain much higher levels of bird diversity than their open agricultural counterparts, according to new research from the University of Utah. If large forests and agroforests continue to be replaced by simple open farms, bird communities will become much less specialized and entire groups may become extinct. Important roles for birds, such as pollination, pest control or seed dispersal, may remain unfilled if ongoing trends toward open agriculture continues and biodiversity decreases.

Teetering on the edge: the world’s 100 most endangered species (photos)

(09/10/2012) From the Baishan fir (five left in the world) to the Sumatran rhino (around 250), a new report highlights the world’s top 100 most endangered species, according to the the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL). The list spans the taxonomic gamut, from fungi (Cryptomyces maximus) to amphibians (the Table Mountain ghost frog) to flowers (the Cayman Islands ghost orchid) and much more (see full list at the end of the article).

One extinction leads to another…and another

(08/28/2012) A new study in Biology Letters demonstrates that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through an ecosystem, including unexpected extinctions. Species help each other, directly or indirectly, which scientists refer to as mutualism or commensalism. For example, a species’ success may rely not only upon the survival of its food source, but may also indirectly rely upon the survival of more distantly related species.

Exit mobile version