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Future threats to the Amazon rainforest Rhett A. Butler, mongabay.com July 31, 2008
Here mongabay.com takes a look at past, current and potential future drivers of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Please note, breaking news on the Amazon can be found at Amazon news. Past drivers of deforestation in the Amazon Most deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has occurred since the late 1960s when the Brazil's military government began to sponsor large-scale development programs to promote colonization in the region. The plan, which sought to provide economic opportunities for landless poor from crowded parts of the country and establish a national presence in the vast and sparsely populate interior, offered subsidized loans to settlers and ranchers, and funded ambitious highway projects like the Trans-Amazonian highway.
As the colonization scheme waned and the economy weakened in the early 1990s, deforestation rates slowed. For the rest of the decade forest clearing largely moved in step with the economy as drivers of deforestation became more industrialized. Although clearing for cattle pasture continued to be the largest cause of forest conversion, the emergence of mechanized soy agriculture in the frontier states of Pará and Mato Grosso hinted at what the next decade held in store for Earth's largest rainforest. Current drivers of deforestation in the Amazon
Cattle Clearing for cattle pasture is the largest driver of deforestation in the Amazon, accounting for more than two-thirds of annual forest clearing in many years. Traditionally such land has been used for low intensity grazing, primarily as a vehicle for speculating on appreciating land prices, but this is changing. The recent influx of capital, combined with the eradication of foot-and-mouth disease and improved infrastructure, has lead to the emergence of intensive operations with six to eight times the number of cattle per hectare. These trends have spurred Brazil's rise to become the world's largest exporter of beef. Today the country has more than 200 million head of cattle and slaughterhouses in the Amazon account for more than 40 percent of production, according to a 2008 study by Amigos da Terra Amazônia Brasileira. 96 percent of growth in country's herd size since the end of 2003 has occurred in the Amazon.
Soy
Small-holder clearing Land-clearing by small-holders remains a significant source of new deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Despite the federal government's recent efforts to rein in deforestation in the so-called "Arc of Deforestation", at the same time it actively promotes colonization in the Amazon. Agencies including INCRA and SUFRAMA resettle thousands each year who then clear forest for subsistence agriculture or to sell to developers. Logging
Plantations Amazon rainforest is sometimes cleared for the establishment of plantations pulp and paper, timber and fiber production. In 2006 Brazilian firms planted 627,000 hectares of industrial forest plantations, an increase of 13% from 2005. Mining Mining in the Brazilian Amazon presently results in limited deforestation due to crackdowns on informal miners known as garimpeiros. The pig iron industry may have the largest role in mining-driven deforestation by consuming wood to produce charcoal to fuel steel production. In Peru and adjacent countries, booming mineral prices are driving an expansion of mining activities.
Oil and gas development
Oil and gas development typically impacts tropical forests through pollution and by promoting road-construction, which in turn, facilitates deforestation, colonization, and illegal logging, mining, and hunting. In late 2007 Brazil's Petrobras announced plans to explore remote parts of the Amazon for oil.
Hunting While hunting doesn't result in deforestation, it can have an impact on the ecology of the forest. The massive volume of wildlife taken from the Amazon each year — much of which is harvested to meet market demands rather than local consumption — has resulted in "empty forests" in some regions. Forest fragments and areas near logging camps and mining sites are particularly affected.
As global demand grows for agricultural commodities produced in the Amazon, the region is being increasingly affected by drought, fragmentation, and forest fires, all of which are exacerbated by climate change. The synergistic impact of these forces, coupled with the emergence of new feedstocks, the entrance of oil palm development, and continued expansion of infrastructure, loom large for the future of Amazonia. The future of Amazonia Markets
Amazon palm oil The announcement in July 2008 that Malaysia's Land Development Authority FELDA would establish 100,000 hectares (250,000) of oil palm plantations in the Brazilian Amazon came little surprise — 2.3 million square kilometers of the Brazilian rainforest are suitable for cultivation of the edible oil crop. Presently little commercial palm oil is produced in the region due partly to the traditional nature of Brazilian farmers and pest concerns, but the entrance of industry-leading Malaysian producers could serve as a model and quickly increase palm oil's visibility as a viable form of land use. As the world's highest yielding mass market oilseed, palm oil will likely offer better financial returns than cattle ranching and mechanized soy farms, the dominant agricultural activities in Brazilian Amazon, and will employ larger numbers of people (oil palm plantations may employ roughly one worker per 8-10 ha, whereas a single cowboy can handle 4,000-5,000 head of cattle grazing hundreds of ha of land). Oil palm expansion in the Amazon will likely be facilitated by infrastructure projects currently underway in these region, including road-building, port expansion, and new hydroelectric projects. Oil palm producers may also benefit from a "logging subsidy" whereby timber harvested from a tract of land helps offset the cost of establishing a plantation. Before the recent run-up in palm oil prices, logging had been a key element to the profitability of oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia.
Cellulosic ethanol Although cellulosic ethanol is not yet a reality, biotech companies are spending large sums of cash on research and development. Once the technology is perfected, the Amazon could well be an early victim of the initial wave of large-scale forest conversion for energy feedstock. Assuming a yield of 70 gallons of ethanol per ton of dry biomass, razing the rainforest as feedstock could generate 15,000 gallons of ethanol worth $30,000-40,000 per hectare. A million-hectare lot could generate $7 billion in profit. The land could be replanted with fast-growing feedstock for future production.
The big picture On a historical basis the Amazon has proved to be resilient to climate change, large-scale human disturbance by pre-Colombian populations, and even periods of fire and extreme drought during millennial el Niño-like events. Nevertheless, the present onslaught of forces affecting the Amazon is unprecedented. Never before has the region experienced the simultaneous impact of large-scale forest loss and degradation, fragmentation, forest fires, and climate change. Scientists are working to understand the potential impact of climate change on Earth's largest rain forest. Some models suggest parts of the Amazon will experience elevated temperatures and less rainfall, while other regions will get more rain, but the debate is far from settled when it comes to predicting the sensitivity and responsiveness of the region's ecosystems to elevated CO2 levels.
As vegetation goes up in smoke, the forest's own rain-generating capacity is reduced — as much as half the moisture in some parts of the Amazon is recycled through evapotranspiration. Fewer trees mean less rainfall, while the heavy smoke from burning has been found to inhibit cloud formation and reduce rainfall. These effects are not limited to local areas. Research led by Roni Avissar of Duke University suggests that changes in the Amazon may have an even wider impact, with deforestation influencing rainfall from Mexico to Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. How these changes will compound and affect the Amazon in the long-term is still unclear — some projections are dire, others less so. But all raise concern for those seeking to conserve the forest.
Nepstad and other scientists point to the 2005 drought as the direction the Amazon may be headed. That drought, which has recently been linked to warming in the tropical Atlantic rather than to El Niño, was the worst in memory. As rivers dried up, remote communities were isolated and commerce slowed to a standstill. Thousands of square kilometers of land burned for months, releasing more than 100 million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere.
While it may seem inevitable that much of the Amazon will be burned, plowed for cattle pasture and industrial soy farms, or turned into savanna by climate change, emerging trends suggest there is reason to believe the Amazon can avoid the worst. In a future beset with uncertainty over the looming impact of global warming and massive shifts in the international economy, it is these same drivers that could hold the key to the Amazon's salvation. Part II (Solutions) to come Breaking news on the Amazon rainforest
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