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Deforestation, wildlife conflict will be the source of emerging diseases mongabay.com February 22, 2008
The results — based on correlation of 335 emerging diseases from 1940 to 2004 to maps showing human population density, population changes, latitude, rainfall and wildlife biodiversity — are published in the journal Nature. The authors showed that disease outbreaks have roughly quadrupled over the past 50 years, with 60 percent of "disease emergencies" originating in animals and traveling to humans. Most of these "zoonotic" diseases came from wild animals, suggesting that increased fragmentation and destruction will bring humans in contact will more pathogens, especially in biodiverse regions like the tropics. "We are crowding wildlife into ever-smaller areas, and human population is increasing," said coauthor Marc Levy of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), an affiliate of Columbia University's Earth Institute. "The meeting of these two things is a recipe for something crossing over."
Emerging diseases — including HIV-AIDS, SARS, and new strains of influenza — have caused hundreds of billions in damages worldwide. Now with multidrug-resistant strains of previously known pathogens like tuberculosis, Staphylococcus, and E. coli multiplying due to misuse of antibiotics in richer countries, the risk to human health from infectious disease is growing: drug-resistant strains accounted for 20 percent of disease emergencies from 1940-2004. Monitoring hotspots hampered by lack of funding The researchers say that despite the importance of the tropics as a hotbed for new disease, adequate funds have not been allocated for monitoring and researching emerging pathogens in the region.
"We need to start finding pathogens before they emerge," he continued. "Our priority should be to set up 'smart surveillance' measures in these hotspots... if we continue to ignore this important preventative measure then human populations will continue to be at risk from pandemic diseases." Jones, K. E. et al. Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases. Nature 451, 990-993 (2008).
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