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France to see scorching summers due to global warming
mongabay.com
June 14, 2007


Mediterranean countries will face a 200-500 percent rise in the number of dangerously hot days due to global warming, reports a study published in the June 15 Geophysical Research Letters.

Of nations covered by the study, France would experience greatest increase in extreme high-temperature days should current rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue. In 2003 15,000 French died in an "extraordinary" heat wave.

"Rare events today, like the 2003 heat wave in Europe, become much more common as greenhouse gas concentrations increase," said lead author Noah S. Diffenbaugh of Purdue University. Indeed, they "become the norm and the extreme events of the future are unprecedented in their severity."

Photo by Rob Roy

The researchers say the difference in temperatures will be most apparent on hot summer days.

"One might expect that an average warming of four degrees would equate to each day warming by four degrees, but in fact the hottest days warm quite a bit more," explained Diffenbaugh.

The researchers note the reduced emissions of greenhouse gases could dramatically diminish the number of extreme temperature days.

"Decreases in greenhouse gas emissions greatly reduce the impact, " Diffenbaugh said.

Photo by Rob Roy

Coastal areas face greatest risk

The areas most likely to face substantial increases in dangerous heat index are concentrated near the Mediterranean coast.

"This is the first time this amplification signal over coastal areas could be seen and quantified," says co-author Filippo Giorgi of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. "Coastal regions are particularly vulnerable because they will likely be affected by other important climate change related stresses, such as a rising sea level."

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