About  |   Contact  |  Mongabay on Facebook  |  Mongabay on Twitter  |  Subscribe
Rainforests | Tropical fish | Environmental news | Blog | For kids | Madagascar | Photos | Non-English languages | Tropical Conservation Science | Jobs
SHARE:




Most of world's forests could be gone by 2100
Global warming the culprit according to new study
mongabay.com
August 15, 2006


New research claims that more than half the world's largest forests will be lost if global temperatures rise by an average of 3 degrees or more by the end of the century.





The Amazon rainforest.

The study, published in the current Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says that a warmer climate also increases the risk of extreme floods, forest fires and droughts.

Researchers, lead by Dr. Marko Scholze of the University of Bristol, took 52 simulations of the world's climate over the next century to determine how world's plants would be affected under various scenarios over the next few hundred years. Scholze found that Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia are especially at risk of forest loss, while less freshwater availability may produce intense droughts in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe and the eastern United States. Scholze said that tropical Africa and northwest South America will face significant risk of flooding from loss of tree cover as temperatures rise.

The results also suggest that should temperatures climb more than 3°C, land carbon sinks such as soils, forests, and frozen landscapes could release their stored carbon, initiating a positive feedback loop that would increase atmospheric carbon dioxide producing further warming. The research indicates that the "tipping point" where plants to net producers of carbon dioxide could arrive by the middle of this century.

Though the study's forecasts are dire, Scholze said it is critical to examine the potential effects of ‘dangerous' global warming so steps can be taken to mitigate its occurrence.

Regional predictions from the PNAS study
    Forest loss: Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and the South American Amazon

    Wildfires: northern areas, Amazonia and many semi-arid regions

    Drought: West Africa, Central America, southern Europe and the eastern USA.

    Flooding: regions north of 50°N, tropical Africa and northwest South America
"Most importantly we show the steeply increasing risks, and increasingly large areas affected, associated with higher warming levels. This analysis represents a considerable step forward for discussions about ‘dangerous' climate change and its avoidance."

RELATED ARTICLES

Changes in forest cover could affect climate as much as greenhouse gases in some areas
Deforestation, the growth of forests, and other changes in land cover could produce local temperature changes comparable to those caused by greenhouse gases according to new simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

40 percent of the Amazon could be grassland by 2050
Scientists today warned that 40 percent of the Amazon rainforest could be lost by 2050 due to agricultural expansion unless strict measures are taken to protect the world's largest tropical forest. Britaldo Soares-Filho, of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Brazil, and a team of scientists used computer simulations to model the future extent of Brazilian rainforests under different scenarios and found that "by 2050, current trends in agricultural expansion will eliminate a total of 40 percent of Amazon forests, including six major watersheds and ecoregions". The research is published in the journal Nature.

Deforestation causes 25% of greenhouse gas emissions says FAO
Yesterday the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) offered to provide forestry data and technical assistance to countries looking to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through the reduction of forest loss.

Temperate forests may worsen global warming, tropical forests fight higher temperatures
At this week's climate conference in Montreal there have been a number of proposals to plant trees for the purpose of absorbing carbon emissions and helping mitigate climate change. However, a new study from the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory says that careful consideration should be given as to where these forests are planted. Planting trees in temperate regions could actually contribute to global warming.

This article used quotes and information from a University of Bristol news release.






Recommend this article? Comments?
>Digg this article | >Hugg this article | Contact

News options







CITATION:
mongabay.com (August 15, 2006). Most of world's forests could be gone by 2100. http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0815-forests.html


Tags:
featured earth science forests climate science climate change impact of climate change extinction and climate change drought Climate Modeling green

print


News index | RSS | News Feed | Twitter | Home


Advertisements:


Organic Apparel from Patagonia | Insect-repelling clothing




Mongabay Store
Wildlife of Madagascar T-shirt
Wildlife of Madagascar T-shirt
Bold and Dangerous - Pygmy tyrant t-shirts
Bold and Dangerous - Pygmy tyrant
Love me before I'm gone - Gladiator frog t-shirts
Love me before I'm gone - Gladiator frog
Licking this frog may make you crazy t-shirts
Licking this frog may make you crazy





WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
Email:





SUPPORT
Mongabay.com seeks to raise interest in and appreciation of wild lands and wildlife, while examining the impact of emerging trends in climate, technology, economics, and finance on conservation and development (more)

Help support mongabay.com when you buy from Amazon.com



POPULAR PAGES
Rainforests
Rain forests
Amazon deforestation
Deforestation
Deforestation stats
Why rainforests matter
Saving rainforests
Deforestation stats
Rainforest canopy

News
Most popular articles
Worth saving?
Forest conservation
Earth Day
Poverty alleviation
Cell phones in Africa
Seniors helping Africa
Saving orangutans in Borneo
Palm oil
Amazon palm oil
Future of the Amazon
Cane toads
Dubai environment
Investing to save rainforests
Visiting the rainforest
Biomimicry
Defaunation
Blue lizard
Amazon fires
Extinction debate
Extinction crisis
Blackwashing
Industrial deforestation
Save the Amazon
Rainforests & REDD
Brazil's Amazon plan
Malaysian palm oil
Avatar story
New Guinea
Sulawesi
Amazon ranching
Madagascar
Borneo

News topics
Amazon
Biofuels
Brazil
Carbon Finance
Conservation
Climate Change
Deforestation
Energy
Happy-upbeat
Indonesia
Interviews
Oceans
Palm oil
Rainforests
REDD
Solutions
Wildlife
MORE TOPICS



Non-English Sites
Chinese
French
German
Greek
Indonesian
Italian
Portuguese
Spanish
Other languages

Nature Blog Network









Photos
Alaska photos
Alaska

Argentina photos
Argentina

Australia photos
Australia

Belize photos
Belize

Brazil photos
Brazil

Cambodia photos
Cambodia

China photos
China

Colombia photos
Colombia

Costa Rica photos
Costa Rica

Deforestation photos
Deforestation

Frog photos
Frog

Gabon photos
Gabon

Grand Canyon photos
Grand Canyon

Honduras photos
Honduras

India photos
India

Indonesia photos
Indonesia

Kenya photos
Kenya

Laos photos
Laos

Lemur photos
Lemur

Madagascar photos
Madagascar

Malaysia photos
Malaysia

Monkey photos
Monkey

New Zealand photos
New Zealand

Panama photos
Panama

Peru photos
Peru

Peru photos
Rainforest


Sunset

Suriname photos
Suriname

Tanzania photos
Tanzania

Thailand photos
Thailand

Uganda photos
Uganda

United States photos
United States

Venezuela photos
Venezuela



HIGH RESOLUTION PHOTOS / PRINTS


CALENDARS
  • Mount Kenya
  • East Africa Safari Wildlife
  • Kenya's Turkana People
  • Peru
  • African Wildlife
  • Alaska
  • China
  • Madagascar Chameleons


    CANVAS BAGS

  • Hallucinogenic frog bag
  • Madagascar wildlife bag








  • Copyright mongabay 2010

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated from mongabay.com operations (server, data transfer, travel) are mitigated through an association with Anthrotect,
    an organization working with Afro-indigenous and Embera communities to protect forests in Colombia's Darien region.
    Anthrotect is protecting the habitat of mongabay's mascot: the scale-crested pygmy tyrant.