A new study finds that Karachi — Pakistan’s most populous city, home to more than 20 million people — could get an influx of 2.3 million climate migrants by 2050. According to a recent report, only Dhaka, Bangladesh, is expected to receive more migrants. If the world fails to meet the Paris Agreement target to keep the rise in global surface temperatures under 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, roughly 8 million climate refugees globally will be forced from their homes and into the 10 cities reported in the study.
Karachi, the nation’s economic hub, is attractive to climate migrants seeking employment opportunities. The city sits near the Arabian Sea and has an average elevation ranging from 8-20 meters (26-66 feet), depending on the distance from the coast, making it a natural destination for lower-elevation climate-affected communities in the region.
The report, which analyzes cities in Asia, Africa and South America, predicts a roughly 10% population increase in the next 25 years. Such an influx of migrants will challenge the city’s ability to provide drinking water, housing and basic infrastructure like roads and transportation.
“Rapid urbanization has a collective impact on the city. It impacts not only the climate but law and order and scarcity of resources,” Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab told Mongabay in a phone call. “The government of Pakistan needs to allocate additional resources to the city.”
In 2022, Pakistan suffered flooding that affected some 33 million people, killing more than 1,700 and displacing roughly 7 million. Karachi received more than 50,000 climate migrants as a result of the floods.
“Following the 2022 floods, Karachi witnessed what future climate-driven migration could mean for urban centers if climate action isn’t implemented locally. The floods caused an estimated $30 billion in damages in Sindh [province] alone — an immense loss for Pakistan. To create sustainable, climate-resilient solutions, we are collaborating with urban planners, climate experts and Indigenous communities,” Mayor Wahab said.
The researchers recommend several ways to build resilience for all of the 10 cities mentioned in the report. They suggest direct funding for community resilience projects aimed at reducing emissions, inclusive policy development and the need to collect more data to strengthen the capacity of urban areas.
Karachi-based urban planner Sana Gondal offered more specific actions that need to be taken for her city.
“There needs to be a limit on speculation to ensure that housing meets the demands of incoming residents. That’s the first priority. Next, there should be a rapid development of low-cost housing. Alongside this, a grid network is essential to ensure reliable electricity and water supplies. Karachi’s coastal neighborhoods are already at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels, and coastal communities may need to evacuate by 2060. The government should empower local communities, both formally and informally, with adaptation skills and resources, rather than concentrating on mega projects,” Gondal said in an interview with Mongabay.
Banner image: Beach scene from Karachi, Pakistan. Image by King Eliot via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Credits
