FAO: global fertilizer supply expected to outstrip demand
World fertilizer production is expected to outstrip demand over the next five years and will support higher levels of food and biofuel production, FAO said in a new report entitled “Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12” published today. The outlook shows the basic laws of supply and demand are doing their work.
The FAO report estimates that world fertilizer supply (nitrogen, phosphate and potash nutrient) will increase by some 34 million tonnes representing an annual growth rate of 3 percent between 2007/08 and 2011/12, comfortably sufficient to cover demand growth of 1.9 percent annually (table, click to enlarge).
Total production is expected to grow from 206.5 million tonnes in 2007/08 to 241 million tonnes in 2011/12. Fertilizer demand will increase from 197 million tonnes today to 216 million tonnes in 2011/12.
World nitrogen supply is forecast to rise by 23.1 million tonnes by 2011/12; world phosphate fertilizer supply will increase by 6.3 million tonnes and potash supply by 4.9 million tonnes (figures 1 to 3 show regional and sub-regional contributions to changes in consumption, per type of fertilizer).
Africa will remain a major phosphate exporter and increase nitrogen exports while importing all of its potash. Fertilizer consumption in Africa continues to be largely restricted to 10 more highly developed countries, main consumers are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco. The vast bulk of Sub-Saharan Africa's farmers still doesn't use any fertilizer (check what the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, as well as the Africa Fertilizer Summit have to say about this situation):
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: agriculture :: fertilizer :: nitrogen :: phosphate :: potash :: FAO ::
It is expected that North America will continue to be a net importer of nitrogen and that the region will move into increasing phosphate deficit while remaining a primary supplier of potash.
Asia is expected to produce a rapidly increasing surplus of nitrogen, but will continue to import phosphate and potash.
Earlier this month, the FAO announced world cereals production is set to increase significantly this year, pushing down prices, which are however expected to remain firm (previous post).
Picture: FAO expects fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption. Credit: FAO.
References:
FAO: Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12 - February 2008.
FAO: Global fertilizer supply expected to outstrip demand - New FAO fertilizer outlook to 2011/12 published - February 26, 2008.
FAO Agriculture Department - Crop and Grassland Service: Fertilizers and Plant Nutrition.
Biopact: Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa commits US$180 million to revive depleted soils of small-scale farmers - January 26, 2008
Biopact: Experts meet to boost African farm yields: the African Fertilizer Summit - June 11, 2006
Biopact: Malawi's super harvest proves biofuel critics wrong - or, how to beat hunger and produce more oil than OPEC - December 04, 2007
Biopact: Fertilizers boost crop production amongst smallholders in Zimbabwe - April 13, 2007
High commodity prices experienced over recent years led to increased production and correspondingly to greater fertilizer use. This has led to tight markets and higher fertilizer prices. While it is expected that the demand for basic food crops, fruits and vegetables, for animal products and for biofuel crops is likely to remain strong, we expect fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption. - Jan Poulisse, FAO fertilizer expert
Total production is expected to grow from 206.5 million tonnes in 2007/08 to 241 million tonnes in 2011/12. Fertilizer demand will increase from 197 million tonnes today to 216 million tonnes in 2011/12.
World nitrogen supply is forecast to rise by 23.1 million tonnes by 2011/12; world phosphate fertilizer supply will increase by 6.3 million tonnes and potash supply by 4.9 million tonnes (figures 1 to 3 show regional and sub-regional contributions to changes in consumption, per type of fertilizer).
Africa will remain a major phosphate exporter and increase nitrogen exports while importing all of its potash. Fertilizer consumption in Africa continues to be largely restricted to 10 more highly developed countries, main consumers are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco. The vast bulk of Sub-Saharan Africa's farmers still doesn't use any fertilizer (check what the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, as well as the Africa Fertilizer Summit have to say about this situation):
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: agriculture :: fertilizer :: nitrogen :: phosphate :: potash :: FAO ::
It is expected that North America will continue to be a net importer of nitrogen and that the region will move into increasing phosphate deficit while remaining a primary supplier of potash.
Asia is expected to produce a rapidly increasing surplus of nitrogen, but will continue to import phosphate and potash.
Earlier this month, the FAO announced world cereals production is set to increase significantly this year, pushing down prices, which are however expected to remain firm (previous post).
Picture: FAO expects fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption. Credit: FAO.
References:
FAO: Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12 - February 2008.
FAO: Global fertilizer supply expected to outstrip demand - New FAO fertilizer outlook to 2011/12 published - February 26, 2008.
FAO Agriculture Department - Crop and Grassland Service: Fertilizers and Plant Nutrition.
Biopact: Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa commits US$180 million to revive depleted soils of small-scale farmers - January 26, 2008
Biopact: Experts meet to boost African farm yields: the African Fertilizer Summit - June 11, 2006
Biopact: Malawi's super harvest proves biofuel critics wrong - or, how to beat hunger and produce more oil than OPEC - December 04, 2007
Biopact: Fertilizers boost crop production amongst smallholders in Zimbabwe - April 13, 2007
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