EU study shows urgency of low-carbon revolution to fight climate change

A new World Energy Technology Outlook study published by the European Commission's Research Directorate demonstrates the need for radical change in Europe's energy mix to face the double challenges of energy security and climate change.

The "World Energy Technology Outlook 2050" (WETO-H2) [*pdf] was presented as background to the adoption of the EU's comprehensive new energy/climate change package that was presented today.

The study predicts the development of the world's and Europe's energy system to 2050 using three different scenarios:

1. A "reference" (or 'business-as-usual') scenario with moderate climate-change policies and short-term energy production constraints;
2. A "carbon constraint" scenario with stronger climate-change policies, and;
3. A hydrogen scenario, which is a variation on the "carbon constraint" scenario but predicting more hydrogen technology breakthroughs.

This is the second WETO report following the first one which was published in 2003, and the new study shows remarkable differences in results. The WETO 2050 report is also more pessimistic than the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Outlook 2006", which already contained a grim scenario (earlier post).

Some of the key messages of the different WETO-H2 scenarios include:

1. The 'business-as-usual' scenario

• total energy consumption in the world more than doubles from the current ten Gtoe (gigaton of oil equivalent) per year to 22 Gtoe in 2050. For Europe, the increase is more modest (from 1.9 Gtoe to 2.6 Gtoe per year in 2050);
• fossil fuels will provide 70% of this total and non-fossil (mostly renwables and nuclear) 30%; Europe will see more renewables and nuclear (40% compared to 20% now);
• conventional oil production will level off after 2025 at around 100 Mbl/d (million barrels per day); there will be a "plateau" and not an "oil peak"; non-conventional oil will provide the increase to about 125 Mbl/d in 2050;
• prices will reach $110 per barrel for oil and $100 boe (barrels of oil equivalent) for gas;
• coal will return as an important source of electricity and reach a price of $110 per ton in 2050;
• there will be more use of nuclear and renewables after 2020 ("massive after 2030"); more use of renewables and nuclear in Europe will mean that European electricity production in 70% "decarbonised" by 2050, and;
• resulting CO2 emissions in this scenario will be between 900 to 1000 ppm (parts per million), around double that which is currently perceived by scientists as acceptable. For Europe, CO2 emissions in 2050 will be 10% less than their present level.

2. The 'carbon-constrained' scenario:
biomass :: bioenergy :: energy :: sustainability :: climate change :: global warming :: carbon dioxide :: fossil fuels :: biofuels :: renewables :: low carbon economy :: EU ::

* This scenario accepts a level of CO2 emissions close to 500 ppmv for 2050;
* global energy demand will be three Gtoe lower than in the reference scenario; renewables (30%) and nuclear (40%) will have bigger shares of electricity production but coal consumption will stagnate despite carbon capture and storage technologies;
* global CO2 emissions will be 25% higher than in 1990, but EU emissions will have been halved ("factor two" reduction); the report suggests that, in order to stay within the acceptable level of climate change of 550 ppmv of CO2 equivalent for all greenhouse gases, the world needs a "factor four reduction" but shies away from making the calculations for this scenario, as these policies would need "radical structural changes" in "mentalities, behaviour and organisations" (p. 54), and;
* in Europe, renewables will provide 22% of energy demand and nuclear 30%; the share of fossil fuels will be less than 50%, leading to enhanced energy self-sufficiency for Europe.


3. The 'hydrogen' scenario:

* Total world energy demand will be 8% less than in the reference case; the share of fossil fuels by 2050 will be less than 60%; demand for coal drops considerably but nuclear and renewables increase;
* hydrogen will provide 13% of final energy consumption compared with 2% in the reference case; half of hydrogen production comes from renewables and 40% from nuclear;
* 90% of hydrogen will be used in transport, and;
* Europe will have the following energy mix: nuclear: 33%, oil, natural gas and renewables each 20% and coal 6%.


More information:
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research: World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 [*.pdf], Jan. 8, 2007
International Energy Agency (IEA): World Energy Outlook 2006 [*.pdf]