Transition to non-conventional fossil fuels carries major environmental risks - study
The increasing use of substitute fossil-based liquid hydrocarbons, such as unconventional crude oils or synthetic liquid fuels made from coal and natural gas, will dramatically increase global greenhouse gas emissions unless mitigating steps are taken, according to a new study by researchers at UC Berkeley. The research comes as a boon to biofuel advocates who have been warning a long time for the dangers of new fossil-based fuels.
The authors argue that the global energy system is in the early stages of a transition from conventionally produced oil to a variety of substitutes, bringing economic, strategic, and environmental risks. They further argue that without appropriate policies, tradeoffs between these risks are likely to be made so as to allow increased environmental disruption in return for increased economic and energy security.
Their work is reported in the paper “Risks of the Oil Transition” [*.pdf] published in the Institute of Physics open-access journal, Environmental Research Letters (ERL).
Lead author Alex Farrell writes:
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: coal :: natural gas :: tar sands :: fossil fuels :: coal-to-liquids :: Fischer-Tropsch :: synthetic fuels :: carbon dioxide :: greenhouse gas emissions :: carbon capture and storage :: carbon sequestration :: climate change ::
"We have calculated that production of fuels from low-quality and synthetic petroleum, such as tar sands, could have greenhouse gas emissions 30%-70% greater than the emissions from conventional gasoline. Tar sands are already being used as a source for gasoline, with over one million barrels refined each day in Alberta, Canada. With oil selling for $60/barrel on the international market, the $30/barrel production cost for tar sands is no longer an obstacle to production as it used to be", Alex Farrell continues.
The authors suggest approaches that can mitigate all three risks, beginning with the diversification of energy supply and including demand reduction and better transportation planning.
Fossil-based SCP technologies with CCS [carbon capture and storage] could provide supply diversity in the near term if adequate investments were made. Because of the fuel-related GHG emissions, fossil SCPs might be appropriate only as a short-term response, although the path dependence of energy system investments suggests there may be no such thing as a purely short-term response.
The true challenge of the oil transition is to develop and deploy environmentally acceptable energy technologies (both supply and demand) rapidly enough to replace dwindling conventional oil production and meet growing demand for transportation energy.
Because of the large environmental and security externalities involved, markets alone will not respond to this problem, so government policies to manage the all three risks of the oil transition are needed now.
More information:
A E Farrell et al, Risks of the oil transition; 2006 Environ. Res. Lett. 1 014004 (6pp), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014004; html version, pdf format, abstract.
The authors argue that the global energy system is in the early stages of a transition from conventionally produced oil to a variety of substitutes, bringing economic, strategic, and environmental risks. They further argue that without appropriate policies, tradeoffs between these risks are likely to be made so as to allow increased environmental disruption in return for increased economic and energy security.
Their work is reported in the paper “Risks of the Oil Transition” [*.pdf] published in the Institute of Physics open-access journal, Environmental Research Letters (ERL).
Lead author Alex Farrell writes:
Liquid fuels for transportation are increasingly coming from a wide range of sources other than conventional petroleum. We call this the oil transition and we conclude that the environmental risks associated with this transition are much bigger than the risk to a country’s economy or the security of their fuel supply.Under the category of substitutes for conventional petroleum (SCP), the authors consider synthetic crude produced from oil sands and oil shale, heavy oil production, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuel production:
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: coal :: natural gas :: tar sands :: fossil fuels :: coal-to-liquids :: Fischer-Tropsch :: synthetic fuels :: carbon dioxide :: greenhouse gas emissions :: carbon capture and storage :: carbon sequestration :: climate change ::
"We have calculated that production of fuels from low-quality and synthetic petroleum, such as tar sands, could have greenhouse gas emissions 30%-70% greater than the emissions from conventional gasoline. Tar sands are already being used as a source for gasoline, with over one million barrels refined each day in Alberta, Canada. With oil selling for $60/barrel on the international market, the $30/barrel production cost for tar sands is no longer an obstacle to production as it used to be", Alex Farrell continues.
The authors suggest approaches that can mitigate all three risks, beginning with the diversification of energy supply and including demand reduction and better transportation planning.
Fossil-based SCP technologies with CCS [carbon capture and storage] could provide supply diversity in the near term if adequate investments were made. Because of the fuel-related GHG emissions, fossil SCPs might be appropriate only as a short-term response, although the path dependence of energy system investments suggests there may be no such thing as a purely short-term response.
The true challenge of the oil transition is to develop and deploy environmentally acceptable energy technologies (both supply and demand) rapidly enough to replace dwindling conventional oil production and meet growing demand for transportation energy.
Because of the large environmental and security externalities involved, markets alone will not respond to this problem, so government policies to manage the all three risks of the oil transition are needed now.
More information:
A E Farrell et al, Risks of the oil transition; 2006 Environ. Res. Lett. 1 014004 (6pp), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014004; html version, pdf format, abstract.
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