Global ethanol trade will rise six-fold by 2015

Earlier we looked at the rapidly growing international market for biomass and biofuels, the development of infrastructures geared towards exporting and importing green energy, such as Brazil's ethanol pipeline, Antwerp's 'bioport' and dedicated 'bioterminals' (in Europe and Asia), while hinting at the potential of countries in the South becoming biofuel exporters (several of them located in Africa, where the potential is large; we presented a short overview of the case-study of Mozambique, a biofuels 'superpower', potentially capable of producing 3 million barrels per day of oil equivalent bioenergy, sustainably). Some go so far as to think that the development of such an international bioenergy market holds the key to revive the collapsed WTO Doha trade round; others point out that there is uncertainty when it comes to trade rules surrounding biofuels and that the WTO must create a clear framework for bioenergy trade.

Now Christopher Berg, deputy director of the sugar-research company FO Licht GmbH, predicts the global ethanol trade to increase six-fold by 2015, with a projected surplus in the Americas and a deficit in the European Union and Asia. The EU is forecast to import more than 3 billion liters by 2015, compared with 500 million liters currently, Berg said at the FO Licht World Ethanol Conference in Amsterdam on Wednesday. The Americas, led by Brazil, are forecast to have a surplus of more than 6 billion liters by 2015 that will be exported predominantly to Europe and Asia. Africa is projected to have a surplus by 2014 as production takes off in countries such as Mozambique and South Africa, he said:

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Government interest in biofuels, made from corn sugar or vegetable oils, is motivated by a desire to replace fossil fuels, limit greenhouse gases and support the farming sector. Support programmes are the main driver of industry growth, especially in Europe, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Global biofuels output stood at 20 million tonnes in 2005, representing 1% of the global transportation-fuel market. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA stated that liquid biofuels may make up 7% of all transport fuels by 2030, if investments continue.

EU to miss 2010 target
Meanwhile, Hans van Steen, an EU official in charge of promoting renewable energy, told the same conference that the European Union will probably miss a 2010 target to use more alternative fuels, the second time it will fall short in five years.

The EU wants biofuels to account for an average of 5.75 percent of transport fuel by 2010. It set a target of 2 percent for 2005, and member states averaged 1 percent, he said.

"We can't count on member states getting to where they want to be, based on their previous performance," said van Steen, from the renewable energy unit at the European Commission's Energy and Transport Directorate General. The 2 percent target was only achieved by Sweden and Germany, he said.

The 25-nation EU wants to use less fuel derived from crude oil or natural gas to improve energy security and independence, limit greenhouse gas emissions and support farmers, van Steen said. Half of all new cars sold in Europe run on diesel, of which there is a shortage, and more than half of greenhouse gas emissions come from transport.

European biodiesel production is forecast to increase almost fourfold to 12 million metric tons by 2010, bolstered by $3.8 billion of investment, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.