BIO sees U.S. biofuels target as new 'Manhattan project' that will unlock key technologies
The Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) reacts to the new renewable fuel standard (RFS) contained in the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which calls for the production of a massive 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022 (previous post). BIO describes the goal as an undertaking larger than the Apollo project or the Manhattan project that will unlock new technologies from science fields like synthetic biology and will spill over into other economic areas leading to the emergence of a high-tech biobased economy.
The RFS could add as much as $170 billion to the U.S. economy in advanced technology development, biofuel production, and infrastructure construction. McKinsey & Company analysts project that the new RFS will bring the potential for tens of billions of dollars for biotech companies, farmers, suppliers and fuel producers and necessitate the investment of more than 100 billion dollars for building some 300 new plants. The new RFS provisions in the federal energy bill will induce an unprecedented level of venture capital investment in the biofuel industry:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: cellulosic biofuels :: plant science :: genomics :: synthetic biology :: bio-engineering :: biotechnology :: bioeconomy ::
Erickson continued, “The industrial biotechnology and biofuel industries are ready and able to meet the challenge of sustainably increasing production of cellulosic and advanced biofuels to accomplish the goals of the new renewable fuels standard. Industrial biotechnology companies have made extraordinary leaps in an array of applications for biofuel production, from discovery of new microbes and enzymes for cellulosic ethanol production to creation of novel ones through synthetic genomics that can actually produce hydrocarbon molecules. By opening the door to advanced biofuels in the U.S. transportation fuel market, the energy bill will help biotechnology and biofuel companies deliver these advanced biofuel technologies to consumers’ gas tanks.”
According to a February 2007 analysis by Bio Economic Research Associates, productivity of DNA sequencing and synthesis, key industrial biotechnologies, has doubled in the past 12 to 24 months. These productivity improvements have contributed to the discovery and rapid development of new microbes for consolidated biofuel processing by such companies as Mascoma, Verenium, and Sun Ethanol. They have also advanced the work of synthetic genomics companies designing novel microbes for advanced biofuel production, including Gevo, OpX Biotechnologies, and LS9.
A report released by the J. Craig Venter Institute, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in November 2007, “Synthetic Genomics: Options for Governance,” identified at least 24 companies within the United States and 21 in other countries – notably Germany and Canada – engaged in commercial synthesis of gene- and genome-length DNA for applications ranging from biofuels to fine chemical and pharmaceutical production from renewable resources (previous post).
References:
BIO: Blockbuster Renewable Fuel Standard Plus Advances in Biotechnology Will Transform U.S. Energy Picture and Economy, BIO Says - December 19, 2007.
Biopact: US becomes biofuel nation as Congress approves Energy Bill - December 19, 2007
Biopact: Civil society organizations respond to report on synthetic biology governance - October 18, 2007
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This effort to produce biofuels on a massive scale is an undertaking larger than the Apollo project or the Manhattan project. America can meet this goal because of the accelerating advances in industrial biotechnology. The new RFS will catapult the U.S. biofuels industry to the next level of commercial development and take us beyond conventional ethanol. It will accelerate the creation of a U.S. biobased economy built on sustainable and renewable resources instead of petroleum and it will reduce both our dependence on foreign oil and our climate change emissions. - Brent Erickson, executive vice president for BIO’s Industrial and Environmental SectionBIO takes note of the following facts arising from the new RFS:
- At the mandated volumes, biofuels would make up for more than 20 percent of total gasoline for road transport in the United States by 2022. These volumes imply a total revenue pool of about $50 billion to $70 billion for producers and very significant revenues for farmers and suppliers.
- Enzymes and fermentation organisms necessary for biofuels could represent a business opportunity worth $3 billion to $5 billion.
- Construction of this capacity requires major capital investments, up to $100 billion for building some 300 new biorefineries.
- BIOWA (a non-profit group in Iowa) estimates that 10 new cellulosic biorefineries would create 22,000 jobs, yielding $11.6 Billion Economic Impact/yr and $367M Iowa Tax creation.
- Reducing dependence on oil by about 1.5 million barrels per day is a major move for enhancing energy security.
- And the United States could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mostly via use of lingocellulosic ethanol, by about 200 million tons of CO2 equivalents. For comparison, 200 million tons is more than the total emissions of a country like the Netherlands.
The RFS could add as much as $170 billion to the U.S. economy in advanced technology development, biofuel production, and infrastructure construction. McKinsey & Company analysts project that the new RFS will bring the potential for tens of billions of dollars for biotech companies, farmers, suppliers and fuel producers and necessitate the investment of more than 100 billion dollars for building some 300 new plants. The new RFS provisions in the federal energy bill will induce an unprecedented level of venture capital investment in the biofuel industry:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: cellulosic biofuels :: plant science :: genomics :: synthetic biology :: bio-engineering :: biotechnology :: bioeconomy ::
Erickson continued, “The industrial biotechnology and biofuel industries are ready and able to meet the challenge of sustainably increasing production of cellulosic and advanced biofuels to accomplish the goals of the new renewable fuels standard. Industrial biotechnology companies have made extraordinary leaps in an array of applications for biofuel production, from discovery of new microbes and enzymes for cellulosic ethanol production to creation of novel ones through synthetic genomics that can actually produce hydrocarbon molecules. By opening the door to advanced biofuels in the U.S. transportation fuel market, the energy bill will help biotechnology and biofuel companies deliver these advanced biofuel technologies to consumers’ gas tanks.”
According to a February 2007 analysis by Bio Economic Research Associates, productivity of DNA sequencing and synthesis, key industrial biotechnologies, has doubled in the past 12 to 24 months. These productivity improvements have contributed to the discovery and rapid development of new microbes for consolidated biofuel processing by such companies as Mascoma, Verenium, and Sun Ethanol. They have also advanced the work of synthetic genomics companies designing novel microbes for advanced biofuel production, including Gevo, OpX Biotechnologies, and LS9.
A report released by the J. Craig Venter Institute, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in November 2007, “Synthetic Genomics: Options for Governance,” identified at least 24 companies within the United States and 21 in other countries – notably Germany and Canada – engaged in commercial synthesis of gene- and genome-length DNA for applications ranging from biofuels to fine chemical and pharmaceutical production from renewable resources (previous post).
Market demand for environmentally beneficial fuels and products, along with recent advances in industrial biotech, can help create a biobased economy in the United States. Biobased plastics and chemicals made from sustainable renewable resources are already economically competitive with petroleum-based products. Investment in biorefineries spurred by the new renewable fuel standard can support development of other biobased products that further reduce America’s reliance on petroleum. - Brent Erickson, executive vice president for BIO’s Industrial and Environmental SectionBIO represents more than 1,100 biotechnology companies, academic institutions, state biotechnology centers and related organizations across the United States and 31 other nations. BIO members are involved in the research and development of healthcare, agricultural, industrial and environmental biotechnology products. BIO also produces the annual BIO International Convention, the global event for biotechnology.
References:
BIO: Blockbuster Renewable Fuel Standard Plus Advances in Biotechnology Will Transform U.S. Energy Picture and Economy, BIO Says - December 19, 2007.
Biopact: US becomes biofuel nation as Congress approves Energy Bill - December 19, 2007
Biopact: Civil society organizations respond to report on synthetic biology governance - October 18, 2007
Article continues
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 projects faster growth for renewables
Total share
For comparison, total U.S. energy use was 100 quads in 2006 and is projected to increase to 123.8 quads by 2030. The EIA projections include hydropower, which is expected to increase from 2.89 quads in 2006 to 3 quads in 2015, staying level after that. In contrast, biomass energy is projected to increase from 2.97 quads in 2006 to 5.52 quads in 2030, a 86% increase, becoming by far the largest renewable energy source. Other renewables likes bioenergy from biogenic municipal waste, solar and wind power are projected to increase from 0.88 quads in 2006 to 2.49 quads in 2030 (graph 1, click to enlarge).
The early release of the AEO2008 does not include consideration of the recently adopted Energy Bill, which boosts biofuels massively (an estimated 3.1 quads by 2022). Note also that this is just the EIA's 'reference case', often characterized as the 'business as usual' scenario; a full EIA report examining alternative scenarios and taking into account the new Renewable Fuel Standard, will be released early in 2008.
Electricity
Breaking down the numbers for electricity production, hydropower is to remain the largest sector but doesn't grow much beyond its established share (0.2% capacity growth per year). Of the 'new' renewables, geothermal power generation is expected to increase to 27.96 billion kWh by 2030, up from 14.69bn kWh now.
Power generated from wood and other biomass is expected to increase nearly ninefold to 95.87bn kWh by 2030. Combined with power from biogenic municipal waste bioenergy is set to become the largest of the new renewables with a total annual output of 134.93 bn kWh (graph, click to enlarge). Co-firing biomass with coal is growing fastest at nearly 15.2% per year, while the use of biomass in dedicated power plants grows at 6.3% per annum.
Solar thermal power generation is expected to increase more than fourfold but remains marginal in absolute output, at 2.18 bn kWh by 2030. Likewise grid-connected solar power, which provided a miniscule share of the country's power in 2006, is projected to experience a 73-fold increase but remains very small with a total output of 0.96 bn kWh in the centralized electric power sector and with 4.51 bn kWh in decentralized, residential systems.
Wind power is projected to experience a fivefold increase to 134.35bn kWh in the centralised electric power sector and with a tiny share in decentralised systems (0.40bn kWh). The EIA does not project any significant offshore wind power in its reference case.
Combined, residential and commercial use of geothermal heat pumps, solar hot water, and solar and wind power are expected to contribute only 0.17 quads by 2030:
energy :: sustainability :: nuclear :: renewables :: biofuels :: biomass :: bioenergy :: wind :: solar :: geothermal :: hydropower ::
Nuclear power is set to grow relatively slowly with 100.2GW of installed capacity today to 118.8 GW in 2030, an annual capacity growth of 0.7%.
Overall, the EIA report projects higher oil prices in the future, although it anticipates that oil prices will gradually decline to a low of $58 per barrel in 2016. After that, oil prices steadily escalate back to today's prices by 2030, due to an increasing reliance on 'higher cost supplies'.
This also retards the growth in U.S. energy use, which increases at 0.9% per year in the reference case. And with our increasing reliance on high-tech devices, electricity use increases faster than total energy use, growing at an average annual rate of 1.3%.
References:
U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (Early Release) - December 2007.
U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration: AEO 2008, Summary Reference Case Tables [*.pdf] - December 2007.
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