Africa Development Indicators 2007: continent achieving healthy and steady growth rate
After years of stop-and-start results, many African economies appear to be growing at the fast and steady rates needed to put a dent on the region’s high poverty rate and attract global investment. The encouraging trend is shown in the World Bank Africa Development Indicators 2007 (ADI) [*.pdf] released today. The report is based on more than a thousand indicators covering economic, human and private-sector development, governance, environment, and aid.
In 2005 [the latest year for which ADI 2007 posts data], the performance varied substantially across countries, from -2.2% in Zimbabwe to 30.8% in Equatorial Guinea, with nine countries posting growth rates of near or above the 7% threshold needed for sustained poverty reduction.
African countries fall into three broad categories along this continuum (map, click to enlarge):
A revenue bonanza linked to skyrocketing oil prices especially helped Africa’s seven biggest oil economies. Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities have also benefited many other resource-rich African countries. Biopact and others think many large non-oil producing countries can now become bioenergy producers and exporters, driving a more diversified export growth.
In the high growth countries, ADI 2007 finds, policies have gotten better thanks to the reforms of the last decade, inflation, budget deficits, exchange rates and foreign debt repayments are more manageable; the economies are more open to trade and private enterprise; governance is on the mend and more assaults on corruption. These better economic fundamentals have helped to spur growth, but equally important to avoid the growth collapses that took place between 1975 and 1995.
The group of 18 resource-poor countries – home to 35.6 percent of Africa’s population – have done as well as some oil-rich countries, if not better, sustaining growth of more than 4 percent over the last decade:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: petroleum :: agriculture :: commodities :: economic growth :: exports :: trade :: governance :: Africa ::
Only politically turbulent Zimbabwe among Africa’s 17 slowest-growing economies posted negative growth.
The slowest-growing economies – home to 36.7 percent of the region’s population – are getting more fundamentals right, ADI 2007 found. These include better macro-economic management, greater investments in human resource development, and improvements in institutions and in the performance of the public sector.
The report identifies stronger and more diverse export growth as a key factor needed to sustain growth and reduce volatility. The study laments the higher indirect costs of exporting in Africa (18% to 35% of total costs) compared to indirect costs in China – a mere 8% of total costs. As a result, while efficient African enterprises can compete with Indian and Chinese firms in terms of factory floor costs, they become less competitive due to higher indirect business costs, including infrastructure identified by ADI 2007 as an “important emerging constraint to future growth”.
Sub-Saharan Africa lags at least 20 percentage points behind the average for poor developing countries also funded by the World Bank’s concessional window (IDA) on almost all major infrastructure measures – pushing up production costs, a critical impediment for investors. Africa’s unmet infrastructure needs are estimated to total around $22 billion a year (5% of GDP), plus another $17 billion for operations and maintenance.
Despite the negative impact of poor infrastructure, 38 African countries increased their exports as the region as a whole saw its exports rise in value from $182 billion in 2004 to $230 billion in 2005. Exports were fuelled by growing pockets of non-traditional exports (such as clothing from Lesotho, Madagascar and Mauritius); the successful connection between farmers and buyers (such as with the initiative which boosted Rwanda’s coffee exports to the USA by 166% in 2005); and the aggressive expansion of successful exports (such as cut flowers whose exports from Kenya more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, making cut flowers the country’s second export earner, after tea).
Finding an appropriate balance between investments in human capital and investments in physical capital will help sustain steady progress towards the MDGs and closing Africa’s infrastructure needs, the report said. The infrastructure gap is estimated at $22 billion a year or 5 percent of the region’s GDP.
Besides infrastructure, accelerating and sustaining growth requires improving Africa’s investment climate, spurring innovation, and building institutional capacity to govern well, ADI 2007 said.
Drawn from the World Bank Africa Database, the ADI 2007 publication includes a pocket edition, the Little Data Book on Africa, the Africa Development Indicators 2007 – CD-ROM, and the new ADI family member, the Africa Development Indicators Online. ADI Online contains the most comprehensive database on Africa, covering more than 1,000 indicators on economics, human development, private sector development, governance, environment, and aid, with time series of many indicators going back to 1965. The indicators were assembled from a variety of sources to present a broad picture of development across Africa. ADI Online offers the ADI essay, the Little Data Book on Africa 2007, Country at-a-Glance tables, maps tools, technical boxes, and country analyses.
Map credit: World Bank, BBCNews.
References:
World Bank: Africa Development Indicators (ADI) 2007.
World Bank: Africa Achieving Healthy And Steady Growth Rate - November 14, 2007.
World Bank [press release]: Spreading and Sustaining Growth in Africa - November 14, 2007.
World Bank: 50 Factoids about Sub-Saharan African - Africa Development Indicators 2007.
World Bank: The Little Data Book on Africa 2007 [*.pdf] - quick reference guid for the ADI 2007.
Article continues
Over the past decade, Africa has recorded an average growth rate of 5.4 percent which is at par with the rest of the world. The ability to support, sustain, and in fact diversify the sources of these growth indicators would be critical not only to Africa’s capacity to meet the MDGs [Millennium Development Goals on poverty, health and other issues], but also to becoming an exciting investment destination for global capital. - Obiageli Ezekwesili, World Bank Vice President for the Africa RegionSolid economic performance across Africa in the decade 1995-2005 contrasts sharply with the economic collapse of 1975-1985 and the stagnation experienced in 1985-95. The ADI indicates that spreading and sustaining growth going forward can be achieved by accelerating productivity and increasing private investment. Accomplishing this will require improving the business climate and infrastructure in African countries, as well as spurring innovation and building institutional capacity.
In 2005 [the latest year for which ADI 2007 posts data], the performance varied substantially across countries, from -2.2% in Zimbabwe to 30.8% in Equatorial Guinea, with nine countries posting growth rates of near or above the 7% threshold needed for sustained poverty reduction.
African countries fall into three broad categories along this continuum (map, click to enlarge):
- The first group of seven countries comprises the region’s seven major oil exporting economies, home to 27.7% of the region’s population.
- The second grouping of 18 countries, home to 35.6% of the region’s population, show diversified, sustained growth of at least 4%.
- The third grouping of 17 countries, home to 36.7% of the region’s population, is characterized by their resource-poor nature, their strong volatility, are conflict-prone, afflicted or emerging from conflicts or just trapped in slow growth of less than 4%.
A revenue bonanza linked to skyrocketing oil prices especially helped Africa’s seven biggest oil economies. Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities have also benefited many other resource-rich African countries. Biopact and others think many large non-oil producing countries can now become bioenergy producers and exporters, driving a more diversified export growth.
In the high growth countries, ADI 2007 finds, policies have gotten better thanks to the reforms of the last decade, inflation, budget deficits, exchange rates and foreign debt repayments are more manageable; the economies are more open to trade and private enterprise; governance is on the mend and more assaults on corruption. These better economic fundamentals have helped to spur growth, but equally important to avoid the growth collapses that took place between 1975 and 1995.
The group of 18 resource-poor countries – home to 35.6 percent of Africa’s population – have done as well as some oil-rich countries, if not better, sustaining growth of more than 4 percent over the last decade:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: petroleum :: agriculture :: commodities :: economic growth :: exports :: trade :: governance :: Africa ::
Only politically turbulent Zimbabwe among Africa’s 17 slowest-growing economies posted negative growth.
The slowest-growing economies – home to 36.7 percent of the region’s population – are getting more fundamentals right, ADI 2007 found. These include better macro-economic management, greater investments in human resource development, and improvements in institutions and in the performance of the public sector.
[Past pessimism about Africa’s ability to grow and compete with the rest of the world] does not arise from the failures of Africa enterprise and workers. [It] arises from the fact that the continent faces an infrastructure gap and a level of indirect costs that are anywhere from two to three times as high as those in competing economies in Asia. - John Page, World Bank Chief Economist for the Africa RegionWhile ADI 2007 reported significant long-term gains for Sub-Saharan economies, it warns that the region remains more volatile than in any other region. That volatility, it says, has dampened expectations and investments:
ADI 2007 finds that avoiding sharp declines in GDP growth was critical to Africa’s economic recovery. Indeed, it was crucial for the poor who suffered greatly during the declines. Avoiding growth collapses is key to accelerating progress towards the MDGs in Africa. - John PageMore exports needed
The report identifies stronger and more diverse export growth as a key factor needed to sustain growth and reduce volatility. The study laments the higher indirect costs of exporting in Africa (18% to 35% of total costs) compared to indirect costs in China – a mere 8% of total costs. As a result, while efficient African enterprises can compete with Indian and Chinese firms in terms of factory floor costs, they become less competitive due to higher indirect business costs, including infrastructure identified by ADI 2007 as an “important emerging constraint to future growth”.
Sub-Saharan Africa lags at least 20 percentage points behind the average for poor developing countries also funded by the World Bank’s concessional window (IDA) on almost all major infrastructure measures – pushing up production costs, a critical impediment for investors. Africa’s unmet infrastructure needs are estimated to total around $22 billion a year (5% of GDP), plus another $17 billion for operations and maintenance.
Despite the negative impact of poor infrastructure, 38 African countries increased their exports as the region as a whole saw its exports rise in value from $182 billion in 2004 to $230 billion in 2005. Exports were fuelled by growing pockets of non-traditional exports (such as clothing from Lesotho, Madagascar and Mauritius); the successful connection between farmers and buyers (such as with the initiative which boosted Rwanda’s coffee exports to the USA by 166% in 2005); and the aggressive expansion of successful exports (such as cut flowers whose exports from Kenya more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, making cut flowers the country’s second export earner, after tea).
Finding an appropriate balance between investments in human capital and investments in physical capital will help sustain steady progress towards the MDGs and closing Africa’s infrastructure needs, the report said. The infrastructure gap is estimated at $22 billion a year or 5 percent of the region’s GDP.
Besides infrastructure, accelerating and sustaining growth requires improving Africa’s investment climate, spurring innovation, and building institutional capacity to govern well, ADI 2007 said.
Drawn from the World Bank Africa Database, the ADI 2007 publication includes a pocket edition, the Little Data Book on Africa, the Africa Development Indicators 2007 – CD-ROM, and the new ADI family member, the Africa Development Indicators Online. ADI Online contains the most comprehensive database on Africa, covering more than 1,000 indicators on economics, human development, private sector development, governance, environment, and aid, with time series of many indicators going back to 1965. The indicators were assembled from a variety of sources to present a broad picture of development across Africa. ADI Online offers the ADI essay, the Little Data Book on Africa 2007, Country at-a-Glance tables, maps tools, technical boxes, and country analyses.
Map credit: World Bank, BBCNews.
References:
World Bank: Africa Development Indicators (ADI) 2007.
World Bank: Africa Achieving Healthy And Steady Growth Rate - November 14, 2007.
World Bank [press release]: Spreading and Sustaining Growth in Africa - November 14, 2007.
World Bank: 50 Factoids about Sub-Saharan African - Africa Development Indicators 2007.
World Bank: The Little Data Book on Africa 2007 [*.pdf] - quick reference guid for the ADI 2007.
Article continues
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
First North America carbon cycle report: continent responsible for 27 percent of global emissions, carbon sinks can't cope
The report titled The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle analyzes the amounts of carbon emitted in the U.S., Canada and Mexico by industry sector, the amount absorbed naturally and how these amounts relate to the global carbon budget influenced by other regions of the globe, with particular attention given to characterizing the certainty and uncertainty with which these budget elements are known.
The report finds North America’s fossil fuel emissions represent approximately 27 percent of global emissions. The conversion of fossil fuels to energy, such as electricity generation, is the single largest carbon contributor, with transportation second but growing faster. The report details how the growth of vegetation blanketing North America absorbs carbon from the atmosphere.
Large imbalance between sources and sinks
The analysis points out a greater than three-to-one imbalance between the fossil fuel sources and the ability of vegetation to absorb carbon. This results in the large net release to the atmosphere (over one gigaton of carbon per year in 2003 - table 1, click to enlarge), but there is still some uncertainty in quantifying the North American sink compared to the carbon emission sources.
The carbon absorption by vegetation, primarily in the form of forest growth, is expected to decline as maturing forests grow more slowly and take up less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Report authors find it unclear how rapidly this carbon storage 'sink' will decline and whether it might potentially become a source since changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide could affect forest growth differently in different regions. Further warming, for example, could exacerbate drought, increasing carbon release through vegetation dieback and increased fire and insect disturbances:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: climate change :: fossil fuels :: transportation :: greenhouse gas emissions :: carbon cycle :: carbon sinks :: forests :: North America ::
A variety of local, regional and national policy approaches could affect the overall North American carbon contribution. These include changing the rates of emissions through energy efficiency improvement, fuel switching to low carbon fuels (biomass), enhancing sinks in vegetation and soil, and implementing carbon capture and geological storage (CCS).
United States
Total United States emissions have grown at close to the North American average rate of about 1 percent per year over the past 30 years, but United States per capita emissions have been roughly constant.
Carbon intensity
The carbon intensity of the United States economy, which is the amount of carbon emitted per dollar of inflation adjusted GDP, has decreased at a rate of about 2 percent per year. The decline in the carbon intensity of the United States’ economy was caused both by increased energy efficiency, particularly in the manufacturing sector, and structural changes in the economy with growing contributions from sectors such as services with lower energy consumption and carbon intensity. The service sector is likely to continue to grow. Accordingly, carbon emissions will likely continue to grow more slowly than GDP.
Sectoral breakdown
The extraction of fossil-fuels and other primary energy sources and their conversion to energy products and services, including electricity generation, is the single largest contributor to the North American fossil-fuel source, accounting for approximately 42 percent of North American fossil emissions in 2003.
Electricity generation is responsible for the largest share of those emissions: approximately 94 percent in the United Sates in 2004, 65 percent in Canada in 2003, and 67 percent in Mexico in 1998. These are the latest years for which data are available.
More than half of the electricity produced in North America is consumed in buildings, making that single use one of the largest factors in North American emissions. In the United States, 67 percent is used in buildings.
In 2003, the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy consumed in United States buildings alone were greater than total carbon dioxide emissions of any country in the world except China. Energy use in buildings in the United States and Canada, including the use of natural gas, wood, and other fuels as well as electricity, has increased by 30 percent since 1990, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 2.1 percent.
In the United States, the major drivers of energy consumption in the buildings sector are growth in commercial floor space and increase in the size of the average home. Carbon emissions from buildings are expected to grow with population and income.
The report also characterizes in detail the uncertainty associated with these findings. Variability in physical processes, measurement error, and sampling error all contribute to uncertainty in quantifying elements of the North American carbon budget.
About the report and the CCSP
Authors were drawn from the broad scientific community and included scientists and researchers from academia, not-for-profit organizations, and governmental agencies. In addition, the process of developing this report involved stakeholders from various sectors who have an interest in managing carbon in the future.
All CCSP synthesis and assessment products are written as reports to U.S. Congress. Members of Congress have been briefed on the findings in Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2. Also, all finalized synthesis and assessment products are signed by the secretaries of commerce and energy, as well as the president’s science advisor. National Air and Space Administration, NOAA, Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and U.S. Geological Survey provided funding for the report and/or support for federal agency authors in the development of SAP 2.2.
NOAA served as the lead agency for 2.2 for CCSP and administered the review, publication, and release of the report.
References:
U.S. Climate Change Science Program: North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle [Prototype State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR) focused on North America], Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 [scroll down for chapters in *.pdf format] - November 2007.
Carnegie Institution for Science: First-ever State of the Carbon Cycle Report Finds Troubling Imbalance - November 14
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Government Science Panel Publishes Report on North America’s Carbon Budget - November 13, 2007
Article continues
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