- A weather prediction model by a teen prodigy from Zambian is one of five shortlisted projects from Africa for the Earth Prize this year.
- The prize is awarded to youths between 13 and 19 who have come up with innovations that aim to solve pressing environmental challenges.
- Recognizing the need for weather prediction models that work in the sub-Saharan African context, Prosper Chanda, now 18, developed a model that aims to complement existing ones built largely with data from the U.S. and Europe.
- A scientific paper he authored focusing on the physics behind the model is currently undergoing peer review ahead of publication.
Prosper Chanda, 18, does not shy away from big problems. At the age of 3, he dived into algebra, and then as an adolescent he turned his attention toward advanced physics. At a time when most youth his age are dealing with late-stage teen angst, Chanda is awaiting the publication of a research paper that attempts to reconcile classical and quantum physics frameworks.
Chanda, who hails from Kasama in Zambia’s Northern province, is also applying the conceptual frameworks of theoretical physics to the practical problem of accurate weather prediction. The model is based on what he calls Prosper’s Unified Position Equation, or PUPE.
For this initiative, he was shortlisted along with four other teams from Africa for this year’s Earth Prize, which recognizes the efforts of 13-to-19-year-olds offering innovative solutions to pressing environmental challenges.
Chanda noticed the growing challenge in Zambia of not having precise weather predictions in times where the impacts of global warming are becoming increasingly devastating.
“Communities are not well-informed about weather events and climate systems,” Chanda told Mongabay via voice note. “Those things tend to affect the people and the communities due to misinformation, and they are not informed fast.”
Currently, most weather models are built around and calibrated using data from regions with strong monitoring infrastructure, like Europe and the U.S., making them less reliable in areas like sub-Saharan Africa, where data coverage is more limited.
Chanda’s idea was to adapt what he had already come up with into a weather prediction model that shows how weather systems evolve over time — one that is more accurate for local forecasting.
The model takes initial conditions like wind speed from existing sources, including satellite observations and ground measurements, and uses them as inputs for his equation.
The PUPE model then produces a single, deterministic path for how atmospheric systems will evolve, including wind and storm trajectories, rather than offering a range of probabilistic outcomes like traditional models do.
According to Chanda, PUPE aims to model and estimate the timing, location, spatial extent and intensity of events such as floods and storms, helping communities and governments prepare earlier and respond more effectively.
However, as the model can only be as accurate as the input data, Chanda said: “If there were errors or some uncertainty in the existing initial conditions and measurements that we had to input into the equation, definitely we would get some errors.”
He added he has no intention of reinventing a prediction model, but rather wants to complement existing systems.
Charlotte Tucker, who handles communications at the Earth Foundation, the Switzerland-based organization that awards the Earth Prize, told Mongabay that Chanda’s PUPE project was evaluated as a “highly innovative approach to climate modelling, applying a novel physics-based framework to improve the accuracy of predicting extreme weather events.”
She described Chanda as “self-taught, driven and working without access to the kind of infrastructure or support expected for this type of research,” and that the project he’s developing is relevant due to its real local need.
A team of Kenyan students who developed a low-cost vehicle exhaust filter was selected from the Africa region for the final round of the Earth Prize. Public voting for the global edition of the award opens on May 18 and closes on May 27.
Banner image: Tauya village in Zambia. A majority of rural communities depend on rain-fed agriculture in the country and are vulnerable to weather-related disasters. Image by Enoch Kavindele Jr/UNDP Zambia via Flickr (CC BY-NC 2.0).
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