- A new horizon scan identifies ten emerging forces—spanning politics, finance and technology—that are likely to shape forests over the next decade, increasing uncertainty for ecosystems and the people who depend on them.
- Traditional funding for conservation is weakening as public aid declines, while new mechanisms—from carbon markets to direct financing for Indigenous and local communities—are expanding unevenly.
- Advances in remote sensing, AI and connectivity are improving monitoring and accountability, but are also enabling illegal activities and accelerating pressures in some regions.
- Growing demand for critical minerals, shifting trade rules and tighter political control over civil society are reshaping forest governance, fragmenting authority and redistributing risks and benefits.
The forces shaping forests in the coming decade extend beyond any single driver. Shifts in politics, finance and technology are unfolding at once, often in ways that reinforce each other. The result is greater uncertainty for ecosystems and for those who depend on them. A new horizon scan, published in Forest Policy and Economics and led by Matilda Kabutey-Ongor, sets out to map these changes.
The paper draws on structured consultation with researchers and practitioners and identifies ten emerging issues likely to matter between now and the early 2030s. They include the retreat of traditional aid, the spread of artificial intelligence, and a renewed push for mineral extraction. What stands out is how quickly these developments are unfolding. Institutions are not keeping up.
Some of the most immediate changes are financial. For decades, conservation and forest governance have relied on public funding from wealthier countries. That support is weakening. Cuts to development assistance and research budgets threaten not only field projects but also the monitoring systems that underpin them. Philanthropy may offset part of the loss, though likely at a smaller scale and with less predictability.
New forms of finance are emerging alongside this. Forest carbon markets continue to evolve, driven by regulation and corporate commitments, even as concerns remain over how credits are calculated and who benefits. At the same time, funds intended to channel money directly to Indigenous peoples and local communities are beginning to take shape. In some cases, they bypass governments and traditional intermediaries.
Technology is altering forest landscapes in consequential ways. Remote sensing and AI now make it possible to track deforestation in near real time. Satellite internet is extending connectivity into previously isolated areas. These tools can strengthen monitoring and accountability. They can also be used differently. In parts of the Amazon, improved connectivity has helped illegal actors coordinate logging, poaching, and mining.
Market pressures are shifting as well. Demand for critical minerals—driven by the energy transition and digital industries—is pushing extraction deeper into forested regions. This often happens where oversight is weak, raising questions about land rights and environmental safeguards. The dynamic is familiar; the scale is not. Efforts to decarbonize economies risk reinforcing older patterns of resource extraction.
Political conditions may prove decisive. The report notes a drift toward more centralized and less accountable governance in many countries. Restrictions on civil society and limits on foreign funding are narrowing space for oversight. Environmental defenders face increasing risks. These trends shape both policy outcomes and who influences them.
At the same time, the multilateral system that has supported global environmental cooperation since the Second World War is under strain. International agreements and institutions have provided funding and helped establish norms around rights and sustainability. As their influence weakens, coordination becomes more difficult and enforcement less consistent.
In some regions, these pressures are likely to converge. The Amazon faces a period of political uncertainty as several countries approach elections. Policy shifts could alter the balance between conservation and extraction, with consequences that extend beyond national borders.
Trade policy adds further complexity. New European Union rules would require companies to show that certain commodities are not linked to recent deforestation. The aim is to reduce environmental harm. The effect may also be to exclude small producers who lack the resources to comply, reshaping supply chains in ways that are not yet clear.
Across these developments, a pattern emerges. Forest governance is becoming more fragmented, with authority shifting among states, markets, communities, and private actors. The distribution of costs and benefits is shifting as well. For people living in and around forests, this brings both opportunity and risk.
The authors do not attempt firm predictions. Horizon scanning is less about forecasting than identifying signals early. Even so, the direction is evident. The coming decade will be shaped by how these overlapping changes are managed in practice.
Forests have long been political spaces. What has changed is the pace of change. The systems built to protect them were designed for a slower world. Whether they can adapt is a key question.
15 forces that could reshape conservation in the next 10 years
Citation:
- Kabutey-Ongor, M. Et al (2026). A horizon scan of global issues on forests and livelihoods for 2026. Forest Policy and Economics, Volume 185, 103738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103738.
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