- A new analysis finds that tropical forests in 68 countries sit atop fossil fuel deposits that, if extracted, would emit 317 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases — more than the remaining 1.5°C (2.7°F) carbon budget — revealing a major blind spot in global climate policy.
- Because Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) focuses only on stopping deforestation, researchers warn it risks missing far larger emissions from potential oil, gas and coal extraction under protected forests.
- India, China and Indonesia hold the largest fossil reserves beneath forests, with Indonesia facing acute trade-offs as most of its coal lies under forest areas where mining threatens biodiversity and Indigenous communities, including rhino habitats in Borneo.
- Experts say that compensating countries for leaving fossil fuels unextracted — through mechanisms like debt swaps or climate finance — could unlock massive climate benefits, but fossil fuel phaseout remains excluded from TFFF negotiations despite growing calls to include it.
BELÉM, Brazil — A new analysis warns that the world is overlooking a major source of future emissions hidden beneath tropical forests — and that Brazil’s newly launched Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) could dramatically expand its climate impact by addressing it.
Published by the nonprofit Leave it in the Ground Initiative (LINGO), the study overlays forest cover with national fossil fuel deposit maps and finds that forests in 68 countries sit on top of oil, gas and coal deposits whose extraction would release an estimated 317 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases. When including all resources, not just proven reserves, the figure rises to 4.6 trillion metric tons.
The 317 gigaton (Gt) figure alone exceeds the remaining global carbon budget to keep warming below 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit), raising the stakes for countries that may be asked to choose between forest protection and fossil fuel extraction.
“[We found] that governments were quite unwilling to stop fossil fuel extraction, even if it’s a national park, even if it’s a UNESCO World Heritage Site, or other categories of nature conservation,” LINGO director Kjell Kühne said at a side event of the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil.
LINGO argues that forests sitting on fossil reserves face heightened risk, as authorities may see extraction as too financially valuable to forgo — even where forests are intact or legally protected.
A blind spot in forest finance
All forests identified in the study fall within the eligibility criteria of the TFFF, Brazil’s proposal to create a global endowment that would pay up to $4 per hectare (about $1.60 per acre) per year to countries that maintain tropical forest cover.
But the TFFF currently focuses only on halting deforestation. Discussions so far do not include fossil fuels, leaving what researchers say is a major gap.
By adding incentives for countries to commit to not extracting fossil fuels underneath protected forests, the TFFF could “multiply its climate benefits,” LINGO says. Without addressing fossil extraction, the fund risks protecting forests while emissions from oil, gas and coal continue to rise.
Nikki Reisch, director of the climate program at the Center for International Environmental Law, said the global climate debate too often treats fossil fuel phaseout and forest protection as separate spheres.
“We can’t rely on land. We need to protect and restore natural ecosystems, keep forests standing and stop digging and burning fossil fuel,” she said. “Because if we don’t halt fossil fuel extraction, the forests will die. Fossil fuel drives emissions, leading to massive heat waves, drought, etc.”
Soumya Dutta, a long-standing people’s science movement leader from India, noted that forest degradation and destruction contributes around 12% of global emissions, while most emissions come from extracting and burning fossil fuels.
“So if we do not address the primary problem, saving forests will not save us,” he said.
Where the risk — and opportunity — is greatest
The LINGO analysis identifies India, China and Indonesia as the three countries with the largest volumes of fossil reserves located under tropical broadleaf forests, holding 118 Gt, 98 Gt and 47 Gt respectively of potential greenhouse gases from reserves.
Brazil, the host of this year’s COP, also holds 3.6 Gt in reserves and 37 Gt in resources under TFFF-eligible forests — equivalent to seven and 77 times its current annual fossil fuel emissions.
For Indonesia, the implications are especially significant. The study finds that 95.6% of Indonesia’s coal reserves lie under forest areas, meaning new mining plans often overlap with intact ecosystems.
Kühne pointed to West Kutai district in eastern Borneo as an example of how this plays out on the ground. Conservationists rediscovered critically endangered Sumatran rhinos in one of the forest blocks a decade ago — a population once thought extinct in Borneo.
“Now that area — one of the last places with rhinos — is being downgraded from protected forest to production forest so mining permits can be issued,” he said.
According to Kühne, the area overlaps with a coal concession held by PT Pari Coal, part of the Adaro conglomerate controlled by businessman Garibaldi “Boy” Thohir.
“They want to mine in an extremely important place where these rhinos can still survive,” he said. “But if they mine coal there, the forest will be disturbed — roads, access, people coming in, hunting. Forest destruction starts with infrastructure like roads and mines.”
He said the situation reflects a broader contradiction.
“If the government has no commitment to keep mining out of these forests, it’s strange to me that we accept international money to protect forests while still allowing mining,” Kühne said.
Still, he noted that Indonesia could turn this into an advantage.
“If coal is left underground, Indonesia can seek international support — funding to develop renewable energy,” he said. This could help the country address its chronic difficulty in securing large-scale financing for a clean energy transition, which has left coal power expanding despite climate pledges.
Where the money could come from
LINGO has compiled 16 financial instruments that could support countries choosing not to extract fossil fuels under forests. These range from debt-for-climate swaps and philanthropic buyouts, to green and sustainability-linked bonds.
Kühne pointed to existing mechanisms as an illustration of potential scale.
East Kalimantan, the Bornean province that includes West Kutai district, expects $110 million under the World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility for verified reductions of 22 million tons of CO₂ — roughly $5 per ton.
But the emissions potential of the coal located under forests in the same region, Kühne said, is “10 times that amount,” suggesting the possibility of even larger financial flows if nonextraction were formally recognized and funded.
“So this is a strong argument for Indonesia to gain funding to protect its forests where there’s coal underneath,” he said. “The volume [of fossil fuel emissions stored under Indonesia’s forests] is massive. Meaning, if protected, the climate impact is enormous because these emissions never materialize.”
He added that these benefits could outweigh coal’s short-term economic gains. “In East Kalimantan, many say, ‘Our GDP comes from coal, we depend on it.’ That’s impossible. Coal can only be mined once. It’s an inheritance for future generations,” Kühne said.
He added Indonesia could signal its openness by making a public statement that it’s willing to leave some fossil fuels unextracted, if support is provided. “If they make such a statement, others will come and ask: ‘OK, where? How much support? What can we contribute?’ But first the government must say, ‘This is an option we are open to.’”
Local governments in fossil-rich provinces like East Kalimantan, Indonesia’s coal heartland, could also lead.
“It would be excellent if East Kalimantan became a leader in leaving fossil fuels underground — there’s so much there, and it won’t all be taken anyway,” Kühne said.
Emerging responses
Agung Wicaksono, director of transformation and business sustainability at Indonesian state-owned oil and gas company Pertamina, said the concept of linking forest protection with avoided emissions from unextracted fossil fuels is logically consistent.
“FOLU [Forestry and Other Land Use] could serve as a carbon sink, and linking it to unextracted fossil fuels could indeed represent a large amount of avoided emissions. That makes sense — it could even count toward emission reductions in the energy sector as well,” he told Mongabay.
Whether Indonesia, or other major fossil-forest countries, will pursue such an approach remains uncertain. For now, fossil fuels remain outside the TFFF negotiations. But LINGO’s analysis suggests that unless this blind spot is addressed, forest finance initiatives could be leaving some of the planet’s largest potential emissions untouched.
“You can’t ignore fossil fuels,” Kühne said. “Some emissions are addressed here in forests, but some remain underground — oil under forests — and they still want to extract it. So it’s a topic that can’t be left out.”
Banner image: Cleared forest in the foreground, rainforest in the background in East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo in Indonesia. Photo by Rhett Ayers Butler.
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