- In Finland’s Arctic, unpredictable weather events pose a threat to reindeer herding, a traditional livelihood for the Indigenous Sámi people.
- Due to climate impacts, the global reindeer population could decline by more than 50% by 2100, with the steepest declines expected in North America, at 84%, and population increases predicted in northern Asia, according to a study.
- The impacts of climate change also affect semidomestic reindeer herds, according to researchers, and additional pressures, such as logging old-growth forests and expanding extractive activities on grazing lands, shrink their access to food sources.
- Sustainable land management, such as protecting ecological corridors and old-growth forests, plays a vital role in maintaining reindeer populations and preserving migration routes, one author says.
In 2024, as unpredictable rains, snow and heat beat down on Finland’s Arctic, reindeer struggled to secure food sources, say Indigenous Sámi herders who shuffle their packs from one grazing ground to another. According to researchers, this is an example of the much larger problem the species faces.
Due to climate change, a recent study published in Science Advances estimates the global reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population could decline by more than 50% by 2100, with the steepest declines expected in North America at 84%. Best-case scenarios predict a 42% decline on the continent, while some models suggest increases in population on Russia’s Taymyr Peninsula.
“The idea was to understand and figure out if we can simulate how reindeer species responded to past climate events, so we have a better idea of how they will do in the future,” says one of the study’s authors, Elisabetta Canteri, a postdoctoral researcher at the Globe Institute at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. “And [we] looked into the traits and characteristics that make any species more resilient to climate change.”
The researchers reconstructed 21,000 years of reindeer population dynamics and past rapid warming events. They then compared these dynamics with current population declines and identified ecological patterns and species traits that helped them be resilient to past episodes of rapid warming.
These traits include their ability to live in a wide range of environments, to disperse far to new areas (high mobility) and the capacity to reach high population numbers when conditions are favorable, while also surviving in small population sizes.
Such characteristics also helped the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) survive the Late Pleistocene megafauna extinction, the authors say, while other species, such as the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis), which didn’t exhibit some of these traits, went extinct.
However, Canteri warns that these traits may not be enough to protect the species in the future, due to the accelerating climate pressures contributing to habitat loss. “Our models that focused on climate and habitat suitability predict severe species population decline much higher than what happened in the past,” she says.
Pressures on all reindeer
Beyond wild reindeer populations, in Finland, Indigenous Sámi people — the only recognized Indigenous people in the European Union — warn their semidomesticated reindeer herds are also at risk.
Issues with access and availability of food impact both types of reindeer equally, researchers say.
In addition to climate change and this summer’s heat wave, intense logging of old-growth forests, extractive industries and an expanding military presence by the NATO alliance are shrinking grazing lands and food sources for reindeer herding, says Osmo Seurujärvi, a Sámi herder in Inari, Finland.
In summer and autumn, reindeer rely on a diverse range of plants and mushrooms, including matsutake (Tricholoma matsutake), orange birch bolete (Leccinum versipelle) and porcini (Boletus edulis). In winter, they eat lichen that grows in old-growth forests.
“When forests are logged, the tree-hanging lichen, the primary winter food of reindeer, is lost. This also affects the ground lichens that do not grow back once the moisture of the ground changes after logging,” Seurujärvi tells Mongabay.
Some extractive industries have maintained space for reindeer. In 2009, reindeer herders entered an agreement with a state logging company, Metsähallitus Forestry Ltd, to halt logging in parts of the Nellim forest in Inari in order to keep space for their herds. The moratorium ends in 2029.
“The logging moratorium should be solidified, so that it’s not temporary and continues to provide food and help reindeer thrive sustainably,” Pauliina Feodoroff, a Skolt Sámi leader, tells Mongabay.
Conserving forests is key for reindeer
Researchers suggest that reindeer may play a crucial role by consuming a variety of vegetation and shrubs, thereby mitigating the northward expansion of greenery in the Arctic, which is accelerating due to climate change. Severe declines in the species could also impact plant diversity, slow down carbon uptake and create habitats for invasive species, according to the study.
According to Canteri, sustainable land management plays a vital role in maintaining reindeer populations and preserving their migration routes.
Rangers and herders working together to protect land and create ecological corridors enables reindeer (both wild and semidomesticated species) to access feeding grounds and find more nutritious food sources, she tells Mongabay. This helps them cope, breed and move their calves around to help them navigate the territory and access new and nutritious pastures.
“When the amount of usable or herding land for the species is shrunk and the patches get too separated, the species might not be able to move around or connect with other populations that are around,” she tells Mongabay.
A recent WWF report estimates that at least 700,000 hectares (1.7 million acres) of mapped, unprotected primary and old-growth forests remain on state-owned lands in Finland. Rather than investing in further analysis, the report urges the Finnish government to take immediate action to protect these areas.
Feodoroff, the former president of the Sámi council, says Sámi traditional land stewardship, combined with scientific research, should be part of land governance and conservation efforts to protect reindeer.
Existing Sámi-led initiatives are working to protect reindeer forests, have helped prevent clear-cutting and promoted Sámi land use, Seurujärvi says.
“Snowchange Cooperative, a community-led organization, has purchased and protected reindeer forests, including the forests in the Muddusjärvi cooperative lands,” he adds.
With the Arctic warming and unpredictable weather events becoming more frequent, both Sámi herders and conservationists say they worry the impacts on reindeer populations and herding are inevitable.
“But we can lessen these impacts through sustainable conservation of forests and management of usable lands that the species depend on,” Canteri says, “while ensuring social pathways that also prioritize the social aspect of conservation.”
Banner image: Tromsø Arctic Reindeer and Sami Experience in Krokelvdalen, Norway. Image by Nicolas Lafargue via Unsplash.
In the Arctic, Indigenous Sámi keep life centered on reindeer herding
Citations
Canteri, E., Brown, S. C., Post, E., Schmidt, N. M., Nogues-Bravo, D., & Fordham, D. A. (2025c). Mismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines. Science Advances, 11(33). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adu0175
Sundqvist, M. K., Moen, J., Björk, R. G., Vowles, T., Kytöviita, M., Parsons, M. A., & Olofsson, J. (2019). Experimental evidence of the long‐term effects of reindeer on Arctic vegetation greenness and species richness at a larger landscape scale. Journal of Ecology, 107(6), 2724–2736. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13201
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