- In the next 50 years, 80% of the Maldives may become uninhabitable, creating human security and livelihood issues of epic proportions for its nearly 400,000 population.
- The rise in ocean temperatures and acidification are leaving severe impacts on coral reefs, affecting both tourism and fisheries in the Maldives and also damaging the country’s critical first line of natural defense.
- Before a 1998 El Niño bleaching event, the archipelago’s coral reefs remained in good condition, but it killed a significant portion of the fragile ecosystem, which continues to be impacted by climate change.
- Among the solutions proposed are the prosperity plans under the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) to help countries overcome debt traps and attract investments through debt for environmental swaps.
Eighty percent of the Maldives may become uninhabitable in the next 50 years, and climate impacts are driving survival issues ranging from human security to livelihoods, says Mohamed Nasheed, a former president of the Maldives and a globally recognized climate campaigner.
Popularly known as Anni, Nasheed served as president from 2008-12 and throughout his presidency and thereafter has remained one of world’s better known climate activists, drawing attention to the impact of sea level rise and the future of small island states.
The Maldives consists of more than 1,190 coral islands grouped into 27 atolls. Before a 1998 El Niño bleaching event, the archipelago’s coral reefs remained in good condition, but it killed a significant portion of the fragile ecosystem, which continues to be impacted by climate change.
In recent years, increasing sea temperatures have resulted in frequent coral bleaching events. The archipelago’s coral reef systems form the world’s seventh largest, spreading over 8,900 square kilometers (3,400 square miles). In 2019, Nasheed founded the Maldives Coral Institute (MCI) to support coral reefs to survive and adapt to climate impacts.
In an interview with Mongabay, Nasheed speaks about the 2,000-plus distinct coral reefs belonging to 57 genera that are found in his island home, what it means for the Maldives to lose its corals, and the many challenges before small island states and the world at large if new conservation models and climate responses are not sought.
The following interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Mongabay: From 2008-12, as the president of the Maldives, you raised global awareness on climate change impacts and gained recognition as a climate champion. You mainstreamed the vulnerabilities of small island states and called for global action to deal with sea level rise, human security, adaptation and new solutions for climate-vulnerable populations. Not active in politics at present, you continue to work with climate-vulnerable nations. What are your new initiatives and priorities?
Mohamed Nasheed: I often feel that I have been moonlighting as a president when my true calling was and still is to contribute toward creating global awareness on climate change and to seek solutions. For over a decade, we have been talking, but solutions have evaded us. I am not in active politics, but I work with governments more actively now on an issue that’s close to my heart. Sitting in Accra, Ghana, I get to work with governments interested in a climate agenda and pursue solutions that work for the individual nation states.
My introduction to climate vulnerability comes from my home, the Maldives, where we have been experiencing climate change impacts for over a decade. With varying impact levels, many other countries are facing the same challenges, especially in the Global South. We have seen homes and livelihoods being washed away. Our crops failing and existence is threatened by sea level rise, thus creating serious human security issues.
It is why I decided to draw attention to climate change long ago. It is unfortunate that climate change is overtaken by conflict and war. Climate impacts are not less significant but may not be so stark and immediately visible. It does not reduce the devastating impact it can cause.
The main livelihood in my home country is fishing. Our corals are regularly dying. For nations like us, climate impacts are huge, in terms of human security and livelihoods. Our country’s economy completely depends on the survival of our fragile ecosystems.
Many of our countries are also in debt distress. We are unable to service our debt. If the Maldives is unable to deal with the repayment crisis, we are bound to experience the full onslaught of a financial crisis, just as Sri Lanka recently did.
The truth is, these countries are also among the most climate-vulnerable countries, increasing their crises and their inability to cope due to resource limitations.
Mongabay: The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) includes resourceful but climate-impacted regions in the world. What possibilities do you see for Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa?
Mohamed Nasheed: CVF started in 2009, and in 2022, we evolved into an independent, intergovernmental body that takes stock of our climate vulnerability seriously and is solution focused.
Early this year [2024], I resigned my post as speaker of Parliament in the Maldives and went to Accra to set up the secretariat. Working with the climate-vulnerable countries is something so close to my heart. Countries cannot be both poor and resilient. To build resilience, we need new plans and resources.
CVF offers technical advice to member countries on the development of prosperity plans and help develop financial models. We have been working with Sri Lanka, Ghana and Bangladesh in recent months. We are asking the world to take responsibility and remind everyone that the so-called poor countries are the lungs of the planet and to respect and recognize that.
Most forests are found in the climate-vulnerable countries; we are capturing the carbon that others are emitting. If we didn’t, the planet won’t survive. If you want to breathe clean air, then there is a price to pay, and that is to invest in these environments that make this world still habitable.
Carbon exchange is a mechanism that can work. Take, for example, forest communities who are protecting the forests. They should be paid for it. Those countries should be compensated. These countries purify the air others breathe, and there should be a price on it. It is our right to ask for this now.
In what way can the prosperity plans assist the climate-vulnerable countries?
Mohamed Nasheed: Prosperity plans are a pathway to get out of the debt trap and continue to attract investments in debt for environmental swaps. We are likely to prosper if there is greater investment in our nature. According to Article 16 of the Paris Agreement, there is a provision to ask countries that go beyond their nationally determined limits to account for their anthropogenic emissions. We should ask them to pay.
Instead of looking for new models, it is outrageous that we continue to consider IMF bailout packages as panacea for all ills. Their debt sustainability mechanisms are all about sustaining the debt, not repayment and completion. Countries get into more debt to pay off the original debt, and it turns into a vicious cycle of unpaid debt. At the end, what is sustained is the debt itself. For example, Sri Lanka has gone through 17 cycles with the IMF program. How many times is Colombo expected to seek debt that can never be repaid? This austerity prescription has miserably failed. If it did, then there would have been recovery of economies. We must urgently change the doctor and the prescription. It is unsustainable, unscientific and only bleeds our nations more. This is why we look for alternatives and tap into our resourcefulness in different ways. Prosperity plans are founded on this reality.
The fact of the matter is, it is not possible to be both poor and resilient. To overcome vulnerability, these countries need technology, new methods of farming, harvesting, storing, transport and even building homes.
CVF gets the climate-affected countries to develop their own plans. The government will prepare the plan. There are 101 projects in Sri Lanka alone. Our job is to attract investment to support these initiatives. These projects, of course, need to be financially viable and economically feasible. Public money is not enough to overcome our difficulties that will eventually help the climate-impacted communities. Public funds are insufficient to launch and sustain these projects, and in fact, there aren’t that kind of public funds available in our countries.
Rich countries are not willing to compensate for whatever the damage they have caused as they become industrialized nations at a global-level cost to other nations. We are requesting them to fork out money and through their corporates for the environmental damage caused to these countries. I strongly believe that colonialism, slavery and emissions are responsible for collectively destroying the world.
We began implementing prosperity plans with Sri Lanka. A local NGO brought a cluster of about 15,000 farms, each about 1 acre or half an acre [0.2-0.4 hectares] in size. These are small farm holders. Then we introduced an investor to support these farms to become highly productive. The revenue stream looks at agriculture holistically and goes beyond paddy to include other types of cultivation. We support tech solutions and tapping of traditional knowledge, so that we can build resilient communities by investing wisely.
CVF works on unlocking private funding. On May 7, CVF signed a contract in Sri Lanka worth over $125 million, a small but an important first step. There is a lot of private capital we can tap into.
The byproducts, crop diversification, carbon capture are all important in this process. When you add up the benefits, a country stands to benefit. Investors are willing to fork out money when they see the possibility of returns on investment.
Each farmer receives an investment close to $10,000 for a farm. It is also about better ways of doing things — farming methods, storing and packing. [It] also offers the opportunity to try out Indigenous methods and draw from existing knowledge.
Mongabay: What kind of solutions can be achieved through these plans?
Nasheed: The planet has heated up. When the monsoons come, we worry about floods and landslides. During the dry spell, we worry about beating the heat, avoiding drought and food scarcity.
Industrialized countries have caused harm, and we all are now living through the outcome. But countries like Sri Lanka have so much ancient knowledge. It did drip irrigation over a 1,000 years ago and has an ancient hydraulic system that is globally recognized for its scientific approach — and considered one of the best tech adaptations that draws from a rich cultural heritage. We are returning to our traditional knowledge to create solutions that work for us and within our context.
We promote working with existing knowledge, for they would work best for a country and bring knowledge and tech when needed to support transformation. We are solution focused. We believe civil society organizations have a role to play and that they have knowledge and the community’s trust. They are not hunting for popularity but are focused on solving problems. It is an anthropological approach to seeking solutions. For countries like Sri Lanka, rich in natural resources, unique solutions are possible. Capture the sun and transform into solar energy, for example. These are the solutions we attempt at the CVF. We help find solutions that work for each country and support the design and implementation of their own prosperity designs.
Mongabay: These can be technical solutions. How does the CVF ensure these solutions are people-driven and include their participation?
Nasheed: Governments formulate policies and create a pipeline of projects accordingly. Everything CVF supports is designed by the community and the government. There are government-designed initiatives that need funding or technical support. Similarly, there are proposals by the private sector or civil society. CVF taps funding to ensure all these agencies wanting to work at the ground level get support. Eventually, these are their own plans. We also have an Indigenous knowledge-based approach. So, it is bottoms up, coming from the communities.
Mongabay: What kind of actions do you recommend?
Nasheed: Let’s say a new bond is issued and it requires a government to do more for the environment. CVF can provide or help develop the nature management plan. This is how you repay, by looking after nature.
Under Article 16 of the Paris Agreement, it is possible to ask for payments if a country is above the national determined limits. This is way better than demanding that the polluter pays.
Also, most forests are found in climate-vulnerable countries. They are capturing carbon emissions. If these countries have not played the role of air purifier by being Earth’s lungs, the planet will not survive. Some countries play such pivotal roles; their forest communities do so much to preserve the forests. The air we breathe is purified by their conservation practices and their environmental consciousness. These communities need to be served and compensated.
Mongabay: There is a historical responsibility of the developed world for creating environmental imbalances. Do these plans urge the developed nations to invest in combating climate change impacts by investing in conservation measures elsewhere?
Nasheed: They are neither willing to invest money in the developing world nor acknowledge that destructive role. The debt sustainability models they created only help sustain the debt, not repay and close.
The West has brought us to the brink. We in the Global South cannot do the same. So, we need to create new funding models and actively try to save our here and now.
Mongabay: You have consistently lobbied for the cause of small island states, insisting that climate change impacts have become a human security issue for many SIS. Are you satisfied with the what’s achieved?
Nasheed: In terms of creating awareness about the extent of vulnerability, yes, but not the support we have received.
Initially, COP served as an important platform to create global awareness and to engage with state parties. Now there is global awareness, but solutions elude us. We see great power plays and noncompliance.
I now advocate for a human-rights based approach. We deserve to be compensated. We deserve to live, survive and earn our living. My current job involves advising countries not only about creating prosperity plans but on how we may work together to fight climate change. It is, of course, easier said than done.
Q: You have helped set up the Maldives Coral Institute. What is the ultimate aim?
Nasheed: It is a science-led institute. I have the interest, but I am not a coral scientist, so we have brought in experts.
For the Maldives, corals are not simply a beautiful ecosystem but our first line of defence and linked to our livelihoods and human survival. Conserving coral reefs is therefore almost a religious act for us. As Earth continues to heat up, corals are not going to survive. This requires us to discover, generate and regenerate resilient coral species. We have lost much of our biodiversity already.
The Maldives has been experiencing extreme heat for months. It has become unpredictable. Corals usually bleach but also regenerate fast. The prolonged heat is affecting that natural cycle of regeneration.
So, we are working on creating a coral bank where we conserve all types of coral species we have. Some countries have seed banks; the Maldives needs a coral bank. We can save some coral species and create a genetic map of our corals. Even if some cannot be conserved, we will still learn from the exercise, while conserving the more resilient species.
Once we get a whole body of information, we will share this knowledge with other coral nations. The Maldives has the world’s seventh-largest coral reef structure. What if we cannot regenerate these corals? What’s the future of coral nations then? For example, how long did it take for the world to lose the dinosaurs? In a period of how many years? What was the tipping point?
Related questions need to be asked about small island states like us. Our generation is the one that witnessed how our planet went over the tipping point. What we now see is the planet struggling to find another balance, for the survival of its species.
So, I think, to try to save the Maldives, in a way, I had to leave it and resume climate work.
Banner image of Maldivian coral islands, among the world’s most fragile yet picturesque ecosystems. Image by Dilrukshi Handunnetti.
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