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May 21, 2007
Outbreaks of infectious disease will likely worsen due to global warming, warn scientists at the 107th General Meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in Toronto.
“Environmental changes have always been associated with the appearance of new diseases or the arrival of old diseases in new places. With more changes, we can expect more surprises,” said Stephen Morse of Columbia University.
“Diseases carried by insects and ticks are likely to be affected by environmental changes because these creatures are themselves very sensitive to vegetation type, temperature, humidity etc. However, the direction of change — whether the diseases will increase or decrease — is much more difficult to predict, because disease transmission involves many factors, some of which will increase and some decrease with environmental change. A combination of historical disease records and present-day ground-based surveillance, remotely sensed (satellite) and other data, and good predictive models is needed to describe the past, explain the present and predict the future of vector-borne infectious diseases,” added David Rogers of Oxford University.
“One of the first indicators of rising global temperatures could be malaria climbing mountains,” said Morse. He added that the flu season could become a year round threat in northern latitudes as temperatures rise.
Climate change could also cause indirect health impacts by jeopardizing water supplies, producing stronger storms, and triggering migration from the countryside to cities.
“Hurricanes, typhoons, tornados and just high intensity storms have exacerbated an aging drinking and wastewater infrastructure, enhanced the mixing of untreated sewage and water supplies, re-suspended pathogens from sediments and displaced large populations to temporary shelters. We are at greater risk than ever before of infectious disease associated with increasing extreme weather events,” said Joan Rose of Michigan State University.
“If agriculture in a particular area begins to fail due drought, more people will move into cities,” added Morse.
“I’m worried about climate change and agree that something needs to be done,” he continued. “Otherwise, we can hope our luck will hold out.”
This article is based on a news release from the American Society for Microbiology
