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By 2030 AIDS could be leading global cause of illness




By 2030 AIDS could be leading global cause of illness

By 2030 AIDS could be leading global cause of illness
mongabay.com
November 27, 2006


HIV/AIDS, depression, and ischemic heart disease could be leading causes of illness by 2030 say researchers from the World Health Organization in a new paper published in the journal PLoS Medicine. However the researchers project that fewer children under the age of 5 years will die from disease in coming decades.

Overall, authors Colin Mathers and Dejan Locar say that proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to increase from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. While deaths from infectious diseases will decrease overall, HIV/AIDS deaths will continue to increase from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the researchers’ baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. The disease is forecast to become the leading cause of illness in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Total tobacco-related deaths are also projected to rise, from 5.4 million in 2005 to 8.3 million, or 10 percent of total deaths, in 2030 under their baseline scenario.

Citation: Mathers CD, Loncar D (2006) Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med 3(11): e442.





This article is based on a news release from the Public Library of Science .



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