By 2030 AIDS could be leading global cause of illness
November 27, 2006
HIV/AIDS, depression, and ischemic heart disease could be leading causes of illness by 2030 say researchers from the World Health Organization in a new paper published in the journal PLoS Medicine. However the researchers project that fewer children under the age of 5 years will die from disease in coming decades.
Overall, authors Colin Mathers and Dejan Locar say that proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to increase from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. While deaths from infectious diseases will decrease overall, HIV/AIDS deaths will continue to increase from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the researchers’ baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. The disease is forecast to become the leading cause of illness in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Total tobacco-related deaths are also projected to rise, from 5.4 million in 2005 to 8.3 million, or 10 percent of total deaths, in 2030 under their baseline scenario.
Citation: Mathers CD, Loncar D (2006) Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med 3(11): e442.
This article is based on a news release from the Public Library of Science .