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Global warming will increase likelihood of civil war in Africa by 55 percent Jeremy Hance mongabay.com November 23, 2009 "We were definitely surprised that the linkages between temperature and recent conflict were so strong," Edward Miguel, professor of economics at the University of California (UC), Berkeley and faculty director of UC Berkeley's Center for Evaluation for Global Action, told his university. "But the result makes sense. The large majority of the poor in most African countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and their crops are quite sensitive to small changes in temperature. So when temperatures rise, the livelihoods of many in Africa suffer greatly, and the disadvantaged become more likely to take up arms." The researchers compared data on civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa with rainfall and temperature records. Between 1980 and 2002, civil conflict was far more likely in warmer years. The researchers found that an increase in temperature by a single degree in Celsius raised the likelihood of civil conflict by almost 50 percent.
"On average, the models suggest that temperatures over the African continent will increase by a little over 1 degree Celsius by 2030," explained David Lobell, study co-author and assistant professor of environmental earth systems science at Stanford, to UC Berkley. "Given the strong historical relationship between temperature rise and conflict, this expected future rise in temperature is enough to cause big increases in the likelihood of conflict." Lobell added that the researchers strenuously tested their results: "no matter what we tried - different historical climate data, different climate model projections, different subsets of the conflict data - we still found the same basic result." The researchers say that even in a warmer world there are ways to stem the likelihood of civil conflict. African farmers should be provided with drought-resistant crops, irrigation should be expanded, and farmers should have access to innovative insurance in case of crop failure, according to the study. "Our findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change by such steps as developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate," explains Marshall Burke, the study's lead author and a graduate student at the UC Berkley's Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Even as the chances of a robust and binding climate agreement from the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen appear to have stalled, the researchers say that their study should influence policy-makers at the summit. "If the sub-Saharan climate continues to warm and little is done to help its countries better adapt to high temperatures, the human costs are likely to be staggering," warns Burke. Civil conflict has ravaged parts of sub-Saharan Africa over the last few decades, including Rwanda, Somalia, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to a press release from UC Berkley, the International Rescue Committee estimates that at least 5.4 million people have died from civil war—due to violence, starvation, and disease—in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the past decade alone. The civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo is the world's deadliest conflict since World War II. CITATION: Marshall B. Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John A. Dykema, and David B. Lobell. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0907998106. Related articles Holding the Global North Responsible for Climate Change: What Would Lord Russell Do? 
(11/16/2009) If Lord Bertrand Russell were still alive today, he would most likely be appalled by the Global North’s glaring inaction on climate change. One of the twentieth century’s most eminent philosophers, Russell was also an outspoken critic of war and irrationality. In 1966, just as the United States was ramping up the war in Vietnam, Russell helped to establish a novel legal tribunal which condemned war crimes committed in South East Asia.
Nations vulnerable to global warming present demands: carbon levels below 350ppm and billions in aid (11/10/2009) A group of nations especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change have released a declaration calling for developed countries to keep CO2 emission below 350 parts per million (ppm) and to give 1.5 percent of their gross domestic product to aid developing nations in adapting to the myriad impacts of climate change. Climate change will challenge US military (08/11/2009) US military intelligence analysts claim that climate change will present significant strategic issues around the world. The increased occurrences and severity of storms, droughts, resource shortages, and the spread of disease are all linked to climate change. NASA study shows global warming will diminish rainfall in East Africa, worsening hunger (08/06/2008) A new NASA-backed study has found a link between a warming Indian Ocean and reduced rainfall in eastern and southern Africa. The results suggest that rising sea temperatures could exacerbate food problems in some of the continent's most famine-prone regions. Global warming to hurt agriculture in world's poorest regions (01/31/2008) Global warming wil cause severe crop losses in some of the poorest parts of Africa and Asia by 2030, reports a study published in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science. Past climate change triggered wars, population decline (11/21/2007) Long-term climate change may lead to wars and population decline according to a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The research looked at the cool period known as the Little Ice Age and found that the number of wars increased, famine occurred and the population declined. SHARE THIS ARTICLE:
Tags: africa dr congo democratic republic of congo Democratic Republic of the Congo congo global warming mitigation impact of climate change agriculture jeremy hance green environment Climate Modeling climate change climate change politics climate science disasters drought east africa environmental politics farming famine governance greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse gases human rights politics poverty
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